I don’t like Mondays

Lady Young, head of the UK’s Environment Agency, thinks that coping with climate change demands wartime urgency, as the Telegraph [UK] reports:

“This is World War Three – this is the biggest challenge to face the globe for many, many years. We need the sorts of concerted, fast, integrated and above all huge efforts that went into many actions in times of war. We’re dealing with this as if it is peacetime, but the time for peace on climate change is gone – we need to be seeing this as a crisis and emergency,” she said.

Meanwhile, the Observer covers a new report from a peace group:

This stark warning will be outlined by the peace group International Alert in a report, A Climate of Conflict, this week. Much of Africa, Asia and South America will suffer outbreaks of war and social disruption as climate change erodes land, raises seas, melts glaciers and increases storms, it concludes. Even Europe is at risk.

Greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, and the International Energy Agency sees “inexorable”growth in energy demand over the next 30 years with a risk of more coal being burned. It does suggests a 450ppm CO2 limit might be achievable, but:

“Exceptionally quick and vigourous policy action by all countries, and unprecedented technological advances, entailing substantial costs, would be needed to make this case a reality.”

Not much hope of that. And the China Post says EU officials reckon that China will reject binding limits on emissions in any post-Kyoto deal. The words “hell” and “handbasket” spring to mind…On the upside? Bryan Appleyard in the Sunday Times [UK] looks at options for “fixing” climate through technology (well worth a read), scientists at Harvard and Penn State reckon they’ve found a way to speed up a natural weathering process to neutralise ocean acidity and remove carbon from the atmosphere, and Technology Review reports on a Dutch biofuel company working with a California-based venture capital outfit to develop catalysts that can turn organic matter such as waste wood into biocrude – chemicals that can be processed to make biofuels. If you’ve got money to invest, the Observer [UK] reckons that one of a new breed of green investment funds might be a good place to put it.

Time to buy new wellies

WellieRegular readers will know that I’ve been keeping a close eye on this year’s Arctic summer, and the record minimum sea ice extent reached last month (nice NASA picture here). The ice area is increasing now, but is still about 1m km2 below the same time last year. I might have to increase my bet… If all the summer Arctic sea ice disappears quickly, it won’t have any impact on sea level, but if the ice on land – mountain glaciers and the great ice sheets of Greenland and the Antarctic – melts, sea level will rise. During the last interglacial, about 125,000 years ago, global temperature was a degree or two warmer than today and sea level was about 5m higher. Some of that extra water came from Greenland and Antarctica.

When I was writing Hot Topic, the latest information suggested that Greenland was losing about 200 km3 (cubic kilometres) of ice every year, and Antarctica about 150 km3 (HT, p45). But time goes on, and the world warms. A study to be published in Geophysical Research Letters suggests that the glaciers of southeast Greenland are now losing 300 km3 of ice per year, a 400% increase in melt rate since 2004. AFP reports:

“Until 2004, the glacier mass in the southeastern part of the island lost about 50 to 100 cubic kilometres (12 to 24 cubic miles) per year. After this date, the melting rate accelerated to 300 cubic kilometres per year. It’s a jump of 400 percent, which is very worrying,” National Space Center head researcher and project chief Abbas Khan told AFP. […] The measurements indicated that the mountains hugging glaciers in the southeastern part of Greenland rose four to five centimetres (1.5 to two inches) per year, and that the banks of the glaciers thinned 100 metres per year.

Continue reading “Time to buy new wellies”

Back in harness

ChinaI bought one of Martin’s pork pies today. After too much yak in Shangri-La, I found myself lusting after something a little more in my own cultural tradition… But as I try to catch up with climate news, I find that Xian Ge Li La is in the news for all the wrong reasons:

KUNMING, September 10 — One of China’s leading tourist landmarks, Meili Snow Mountain, will be devoid of snow within 80 years if global warming trends continue, a meteorological scientist warned on Monday. Liu Jiaxun also said China’s lowest and southernmost glacier, Mingyong, has shrunk by at least 40 meters over the past 13 years. The combined effects of ice melting and drying water sources would have devastating effects downstream, said Liu, deputy director of the Meteorological Bureau of Diqing Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, in northeastern Yunnan Province. Mingyong — at 2,700 meters above sea level and 28.5 degrees north — had the lowest elevation and latitude of all China’s glaciers, said Liu. At 11.7 km long and covering 13 sq. km, it was shrinking faster than any other Chinese glacier, he said.

Sadly, during my visit to the Diqing Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture the Himalayas were shrouded in cloud. It rained. (Picture from Erhai Lake near Lijiang). Catching up will continue soon.

[Update: Pictures of the Meili Snow Mountain and glacier from China View here. The clouds cleared briefly, apparently…]

On thin ice

Glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula are thinning and speeding up, according to new research by the British Antarctic Survey. They tracked 300 glaciers using aerial and satellite imagery, and report that 87% are retreating. Ice flow has speeded up by 12% from 1993 to 2003. From the BAS press release:

These observations – that echo recent findings from coastal Greenland – indicate that the cause is melting of the lower glaciers, which flow directly into the sea. As they thin, the buoyancy of the ice can lift the glaciers off their rock beds, allowing them to slide faster.

BBC coverage here.

At the other end of the planet, Reuters has been blogging (here and here) the activities of Koni Steffen of the University of Colorado and Jay Zwally from NASA as they make their annual visit to the Swiss Camp research post high on the Greenland ice sheet. Asked if he thought the IPPC’s fourth report underestimated future sea level increase, Steffen did not pull any punches:

I think it definitely underestimated. We complained heavily before it was released and that’s why they added a few lines that if there is a dynamic response of ice sheets the upper uncertainty might be higher. That tells you that the current IPCC report only takes into account the current understanding. We can model melt but we cannot model the dynamics.

And that’s why I keep covering this stuff…

Meanwhile, two Belgian explorers have been walking across the Arctic from Siberia to Greenland, taking snow measurements to help calibrate a new ESA satellite. ESA were able to help them to avoid early sea ice break-up to the northwest of Greenland in the Lincoln Sea. Story here, with some very cool animated pix of sea ice. For a look at the ice today, go to the NSIDC’s sea ice snapshot. Considerable thinning north of Alaska, where last year there was an unusual polynya. Cryospshere Today shows the same thing.