Author: Gareth

Garth goes off the deep end

Another week, another load of tripe from Garth George in the Herald. He emerges from his sulphurous lair stirred by stories of volcanoes in Iceland to lend his weight to calls for the suspension of the Emissions Trading Scheme. He makes so many egregious errors that he not only makes himself look foolish, but also calls into question the editorial standards of the Herald. Opinion is opinion (and Garth is entitled to his) but facts are facts, and the nation’s leading newspaper should not allow him to simply invent his own.

Let’s take a closer look…

 

Here’s his opening error:

…more and more evidence is available that gases such as carbon dioxide and methane have absolutely no effect on global temperatures.

What evidence would that be, one wonders, because Garth provides no clue. I haven’t heard of any major revisions in basic physics that would allow greenhouse gases not to warm the planet. I suspect Garth is just making stuff up, interviewing his typewriter (which, for all I know, may be about to win a Nobel prize for rewriting quantum physics).

I suspect that the eruption of Mt Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland shot more gases into the atmosphere in five minutes than New Zealand would in five years.

No need for suspicion. The figures are available, and even Garth could have Googled an answer to his rhetorical question. Leo Hickman at the Guardian has done the digging: Eyjafjallajökull has been emitting somewhere in the range of 150-300,000 tonnes of CO2 per day. New Zealand, on the other hand, emitted 74.7 million tonnes of CO2e in 2008 according to the latest MfE report. Garth could have argued that Eyjafjallajökull’s peak daily emissions were about the same as New Zealand’s, but they were also being more than offset by the cancellation of so many long distance flights.

The increasing scepticism over global warming throughout the world is not surprising after the shocking sub-zero weather which created chaos all over Britain, throughout Europe and in the United States in the depth of their winter.

It was the fourth warmest winter since records began.

There is increasing scepticism here, too, after one of the coldest winters in decades, which started early and finished late, afflicted much of New Zealand.

Wrong. New Zealand’s winter started early, and was quite cold, but it also ended early and August was the warmest in the record.

But the deception continues among the global warming scaremongers.

The chutzpah is breathtaking. A Biblical phrase about logs and eyes springs to mind.

Climate has been in a constant state of flux since God created the heavens and the land and the sea and placed the sun and the moon in their orbits.

When was that, Garth?

And I am persuaded absolutely that it is the sun, not the harmless, essential trace gas carbon dioxide, that drives climate change. So our emissions trading scheme will not just be a colossal waste of time and effort but an unaffordable waste of money.

Garth’s absolute certainty is ridiculously unpersuasive, based as it is on shoddy research and made-up “facts”. The Herald, if it wishes to retain any vestige of credibility in its opinion section, should apologise for foisting such ignorant and ill-informed ramblings on its readers.

Copenhagen Accord puts world on pathway to 3ºC

German scientists have added up the emissions reductions pledged in the Copenhagen Accord and calculate that they put the planet on a pathway that misses the Accord’s stated 2ºC target, and only delivers a 50/50 chance of coming in under 3ºC by the end of the century. In an opinion article in this week’s Nature, Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry, Joeri Roelgj et al show how the current emissions commitments amount to little better than “business as usual”, and effectively mean that global emissions will have increased by 20% by 2020. The key points in the article are:

  • Nations will probably meet only the lower ends of their emissions pledges in the absence of a binding international agreement
  • Nations can bank an estimated 12 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalents surplus allowances for use after 2012
  • Land-use rules are likely to result in further allowance increases of 0.5 GtCO2-eq per year
  • Global emissions in 2020 could thus be up to 20% higher than today
  • Current pledges mean a greater than 50% chance that warming will exceed 3°C by 2100
  • If nations agree to halve emissions by 2050, there is still a 50% chance that warming will exceed 2°C and will almost certainly exceed 1.5°C

A lack of ambition now means that countries will face steep emissions cuts in future. Co-author Malte Meinshausen told the BBC:

In an ideal world, if you pull off every possible emission reduction from the year 2021 onwards, you can still get to get to 2C if you’re lucky. But it is like racing towards the cliff and hoping you stop just before it.

Commenting on the article, Andy Reisinger of VUW’s Climate Change Research Institute told the SMC:

“This analysis shows that it is imperative to substantially strengthen the emissions targets for 2020 as part of a strong international agreement if the world is to have a realistic chance of limiting warming to 2°C. We are no longer gambling the future of the planet — if we stick with current emissions targets we are folding our cards entirely and leaving it to our (and other people’s) kids to pay our accumulated debts.”

VUW’s Martin Manning points out that politicians need to be given the mandate to act decisively:

It is becoming increasingly obvious that dealing with climate change is something that needs to become driven by society more broadly. People need to consider how much of a problem we want to pass on to our grandchildren and tell politics and industry to act accordingly.

The BBC coverage is excellent, dramatically illustrating the lack of ambition in European targets. Reports also at the Herald & Stuff

10:10NZ campaign launches

New Zealand now has its very own Ten-Ten campaign, part of a global effort to promote personal commitments to emissions reductions. Based on the hugely successful 10:10 campaign launched in the UK last year by New Zealander Lizzie Gillett (producer of The Age Of Stupid), the NZ campaign aims to get as many people as possible to commit to making a 10% reduction in their carbon emissions over one year, starting this year. Here’s Gillett on the scheme’s impact in the UK (from the press release):

In the UK, the 10:10 campaign aims to cut carbon emissions by 10% during 2010. It has amassed huge cross-societal support including Adidas, Microsoft, Tottenham Hotspur Football club, 55,000 individuals, 1,500 schools, and a third of local councils (representing 25 million people), all the cabinet and the Prime Minister.

I suspect the chances of getting John Key to sign up are slim, but if enough people demonstrate a willingness to make cuts it should show our politicians that this is not an issue that can be ignored or where action can be delayed. Cutting your personal emissions by 10% in a year is an easily achievable target for most people, as 10:10NZ spokesman Rhys Taylor explains:

It’s an easy figure to handle – for example 10% represents one of 10 weekday commuter journeys, either to or from work, switched from driving a car to walking or cycling. Walk or cycle both there and back one day in five to knock an easy 20% off fuel demand for that week’s commuting. If a bus traveller or car-sharer, your journey still requires fuel consumption, but significantly less per person than driving alone. Car sharing or using a bus to go both in and back on one day in five would achieve the passenger’s 10% drop in commuting fuel. That’s not hard to do, is it?

There’s more information on how to make cuts at the 10:10NZ site, including links to the interesting Project Litefoot. The campaign is currently focused on personal and household commitments, but there is also plenty of scope for businesses to join. And there’s the obligatory Facebook page.

Hot Topic is happy to endorse and support 10:10NZ: more news as the campaign develops.

Smokestack lightning

Icelightening.jpg

Not much to do with climate, I’m afraid, given that the Eyjafjallajökull eruption seems to have slowed down for the moment, but this spectacular picture from Marco Fulle at Stromboli Online shows that there’s still a lot going on up there. One of a series of night shots, it shows lightning flashing through the lava and ash erupting from the vents at the top of the volcano. There are other wonderful images to be found at Stromboli Online — Jeff Masters uses one in his latest roundup of ash movements. For the view from space, take a look at this picture from NASA’s Earth Observatory. Normal climate service will resume shortly…

[Howlin’ Wolf]