Reaction to the emissions trading scheme (ETS) has not been slow coming in, and so far the government seems to have pulled off a remarkable balancing act, gaining at least grudging support from most quarters. Bill English was quick to say that the ETS looked “broadly sound
Tag: ETS
NZ emissions trading scheme announced
Details of the government’s planned emissions trading scheme (ETS) have been announced. Scoop has all the government speeches and press releases. I’m reading them at the moment, and will comment more later, but here are some highlights:
- Foresters will receive the full value of carbon credits on new growth (from 1/1/2008) in post-1990 forests.
- Agriculture will not be brought into the scheme until 2013.
- NZ emissions units will be Kyoto-complaint and internationally tradeable (subject to some limits).
- Some units will be allocated free, others auctioned.
- Forestry will be first into the scheme in Jan 2008.
- Transport’s next, in 2009, basically through fuel prices
- Stationery energy (power generation) and heavy industry will enter in 2010, with no free allocation for electricity generators.
- Farmers will get free allocation of units based on 90% of 2005 emissions, but details to be worked out
The government hopes that 90% of power generation will be from renewable sources by 2025. In transport, they want to cut per capita emissions in half by 2040, and encourage the wide use of electric vehicles. Goals for agriculture are more nebulous: to be the world leader in emissions reduction research, and to lead the world in agricultural emissions reductions. In forestry, they would like a net increase of 250,000ha in forest area by 2020.
The government has also released an update on our expected Kyoto deficit – up to 45.5 millions tonnes from 41.2 mT, mainly from increased dairy production. In the absence of any emissions reduction policy, the government projects this could rise to 65mT, but believes the ETS will cut the 2008-12 deficit to 25mT.
My first thought? Politically astute. By getting foresters on board with what amounts to a taxpayer subsidy, they get enough trees planted to offset a large chunk of the Kyoto liability, and buy time to bring agricultural emitters in to the scheme. More later.
Arctic carries on melting
Compare this picture with the one accompanying my last post on this season’s record-breaking sea-ice melt in the Arctic Ocean. More ice has gone, and although the end of the melt season is fast approaching, this year’s low is already about one million square kilometres less than the previous minimum, set in 2005. The NSIDC’s most recent report (Sept 10) also demonstrates that an area of ocean about the size of California is ice-free for the first time since satellite observations began in 1979. As the ocean cools, it will give up heat to the atmosphere. This could delay the onset of the northern hemisphere winter – and perhaps mean a repeat of last year’s mild NH autumn and the late arrival of winter. In turn, this sets up the Arctic for another year of record low ice in 2008, leading to suggestions that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer long before the IPCC expected. From The Guardian [UK]:
Arctic ice sets new record
I follow the Arctic sea ice extent at Cryosphere Today. The site publishes pictures, maps and graphs of sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic, derived from NASA satellite data. They’ve just announced a worrying new record:
Today (August 9th), the Northern Hemisphere sea ice area broke the record for the lowest recorded ice area in recorded history. The new record came a full month before the historic summer minimum typically occurs. There is still a month or more of melt likely this year. It is therefore almost certain that the previous 2005 record will be annihilated by the final 2007 annual minima closer to the end of this summer. In previous record sea ice minima years, ice area anomalies were confined to certain sectors (N. Atlantic, Beaufort/Bering Sea, etc). The character of 2007’s sea ice melt is unique in that it is dramatic and covers the entire Arctic sector. Atlantic, Pacific and even the central Arctic sectors are showing large negative sea ice area anomalies.
I find this news disturbing for two reasons. First, the fact that the new record should be set so early in the season. That suggests that there is a lot more melting to go. The second is the language: normally cautious scientists seldom use words like “annihilate
There’s no such thing as a free launch
New Zealand melted before our very eyes at Wednesday night’s launch of Hot Topic, but serious flooding of the Minter Ellison boardroom was avoided, thanks to carefully planned adaptive strategies (and two large blue buckets). Scott Gallacher from Minter Ellison got things moving, followed by AUT vice chancellor Derek McCormack, who welcomed the arrival of AUT Media’s first book. I did my mini-Al Gore presentation – just the one slide, showing water plunging down a moulin in Greenland – and then David Cunliffe, who holds ministerial portfolios for Immigration, Communications, Information Technology and Associate Economic Development (standing in at short notice for David Parker, the climate change minister), made it clear to all that the government intended to take the issue very seriously. Then it was down to the real business of assessing the carbon neutral status of Grove Mill‘s products. A good night was had by all, including at least one freeloader, who has subsequently offered the contents of his/her “goody bag