Author: Gareth

National snubs Labour, buys Maori support for watered-down ETS

Nick Smith announcedthis afternoon that National has cut a deal with the Maori Party to support an amended, watered-down emissions trading scheme. Key features (from the press release):

  • Revised entry dates of 1 July 2010 for transport, energy and industrial sectors and 1 January 2015 for agriculture
  • A transitional phase until 1 January 2013 with a 50% obligation and $25 fixed price option for the transport, energy and industrial sectors
  • A production-based industry average approach to allocations for trade exposed, emissions intensive businesses
  • A phase-out of industry support aligned with trading partners and the Government’s long-term -50 by 2050 emissions reduction target
  • Incentives for afforestation created by a domestic and international market for carbon credits
  • Enhanced transitional support for the fishing industry

Smith says that these changes will reduce the impact of fuel and electricity price rises to 3.5 cents per litre and 1 cent per kWh. In addition, the Maori Party get assurances that “further work will be done” on extending the energy efficiency assistance for low-income households, promoting new forestry planting, biodiversity protection, and provisions for treaty settlements affected by the deforestation provisions applying to pre-1990 forests. The government aslo released two background documents: a summary of the proposals and “Questions and Answers” about the changes.

A couple of thoughts spring to mind. The Maori Party’s support flies in the face of their minority report on the ETS Review, where they said they would prefer stronger action, not a weakening of the emissions cuts being considered. I suspect that the real meat of their deal lies in the treatment of pre-1990 forests, where many tribes have very significant assets.

It also looks as though Smith could not cut a deal with Labour, who would have objected to the price cap and reduced obligations during the new “transitional phase”, and the considerable softening of the long term phase out of free allocations to big emitters. Both of these moves have the effect of increasing the subsidy from taxpayers to big (often foreign-owned) corporates. At the same time, delaying agriculture’s entry into the scheme by two years may not do much to blunt objections from farmers if recent Federated Farmers pronouncements are anything to go by.

I’ll have more on this in due course, but here’s a revealing line from the Q+A document:

Assuming new afforestation of 50,000 hectares per year, New Zealand’s emissions in 2020 would decrease by approximately 20% relative to 1990 levels.

In other words, despite refusing to acknowledge forestry’s role in meeting targets during the “consultation” process, Smith has clearly known all along the role it would have to play — because he’s expecting it to deliver a big enough carbon sink to offset all of New Zealand’s emissions growth since 1990 and then 20% more. Words fail me — but only briefly, you may rest assured…

Titanic days

Awesome (defined as extremely impressive or daunting; inspiring great admiration, apprehension, or fear) time-lapse pictures of the calving face of the great glacier at Ilulisat, Greenland pouring ice into the ocean — the single biggest ice discharge of any northern hemisphere glacier. Greenlanders reckon this is where the iceberg that sank the Titanic originated. The ice face is huge — the helicopter at the beginning of the clip gives some sense of scale — but the ice is actually 1,000 metres thick at that point. This clip is only an appetiser for the Extreme Ice Survey‘s James Balog providing more detail, and showing many more truly awe-inspiring images in a recent TED talk. Well worth 20 minutes of anyone’s time — as Balog says, it’s hard to ignore the evidence of what’s happening up North.

[Hat tip to Riatsala in a comment yesterday]

Ask not for whom the Bellamy tolls…

homer.jpgTV3’s Sunrise programme featured an interview with David Bellamy this morning. You can watch it here, and read TV3’s story here. The bewhiskered botanist, in NZ to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the battle to save the Whirinaki forest, cut a rather sad figure, I thought, as the presenters gave him a chance to run his “global warming is poppycock” line. As a conservationist and TV presenter he used to be marvellous. As a climate denier he’s just laughable. This is how he got started on climate change (my transcript):

Presenter: Do you believe man-made climate change is happening?

Bellamy: Absolutely not.

Presenter: And what backs up your belief?

Bellamy: Because there’s no actual proof. There’s a whole series of computer models and you can fiddle computer models to say what you like. If you actually look at the facts, that for the last ten years, um, man-made global warming if it was working, has stopped, because the temperatures have gone down, and right at this moment we’re heading for thirty years pretty cold, thing.

Standard crank talking points, but not many go as far as predicting 30 years of “pretty cold” on the basis of one cold winter. But Bellamy pushes the crank boat out even further later in the interview:

…2,000 years ago we were growing good merlot on the border with Scotland, and that was 3 degrees to 5 degrees warmer than it is now…

He’s just making things up for the sake of a soundbite. The Romans didn’t make wine on the Scottish borders, and even if they had it wouldn’t have been merlot. Not to mention that the temperature then was not warmer than today. Sad stuff – a once influential figure reduced to spouting gibberish.

Pocket calculator

homer.jpgThe National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) has bought a shiny new supercomputer. For $12.7m they’re getting a IBM Power 575 that will be the fastest climate machine in the southern hemisphere, 14th fastest in the world — and it will get an upgrade in 2 years which will double its speed. Sounds like a good deal to everyone but NZ’s climate cranks. Bryan Leyland, “chair of the economics panel” of the NZ CSC rushed to issue a press release:

“It is a national scandal that NIWA are squandering $12.7 million of taxpayers’ hard earned money on yet another supercomputer. In spite of buying a Cray T3A supercomputer several years ago, their predictions of the climate have been spectacularly wrong. They failed to predict the 1998 El Nino event, the cooling that has been noticeable since 2002 and the increased cooling that has been recorded over the last two years.”

A NIWA spokesman was quick to point out that they bought the Cray in 1999, so would have been hard-pressed to use to it predict an El Niño in the preceding year, but Leyland’s outburst is mainly interesting for two reasons: it’s an amusing public parade of ignorance (a bit like standing in the middle of Wellington wearing a dunce’s hat shouting “Look at me!”), and because he recommends that NIWA give up climate modelling and instead rely on the work of a British forecaster called Piers Corbyn. Let’s start with Leyland’s take on climate models.

Continue reading “Pocket calculator”

10:10 trumps 50:50

Imagine this: the prime minister and his entire cabinet, the opposition front bench and the largest other party in Parliament all sign up to make personal emissions cuts of 10% in 2010. Not 10% in 10 years, — 10% next year. Not in NZ, sadly, but that’s what has just happened in Britain. The 10:10 campaign, created by Age Of Stupid producer Franny Armstrong and her team, was launched last Tuesday. Armstrong is impressed by the rapid response:

“It’s amazing that within 48 hours of the campaign’s launch, the leaderships of the three main political parties have committed to cut their 10%. Who said people power was dead? These politicians clearly recognise that each person in Britain must start cutting their emissions as part of a national war-effort-scale response to the climate crisis.”

Meanwhile, New Zealand’s government flounders around trying to find support to water down the emissions trading scheme. Rod Oram in today’s Sunday Star Times considers National’s options:

..almost anything is possible because National has dissembled, prevaricated and otherwise failed to reveal its true beliefs on climate change in opposition and so far in government.

Time for a 10:10 campaign in New Zealand. Labour, the Greens and the Maori Party should jump to join in. Rodney and ACT are obviously a lost cause, but if enough people signed up — the momentum in Britain has been impressive, and the Greenpeace Sign On campaign here has done well — the pressure on Key and Smith might force them to do the right thing. But I won’t be holding my breath.