Marvellous year

Click on the picture, and then listen to Marvellous Year, the title track of Don McGlashan’s recent album. It’s a fitting soundtrack to the end of 2009 and the beginning of 2010. If what you’re looking for is a roundup of 2009’s climate-related news, I can do no better than offer you Nature’s effort — via Olive at Climate Feedback.

At Hot Topic, 2009 was interesting, in the sense of the Chinese curse. We enter 2010 with much more traffic than a year ago — helped along by the arrival of Scrotum and Monckton (1, 2, 3), a book review (or two), and the occasional robust dismissal of crank tripe. We’ve joined Sciblogs, New Zealand’s very own science blog network, Hot Topic (the book) was shortlisted for the Royal Society of NZ’s first science book prize, and the NZ media have occasionally availed themselves of my views on climate issues. A major part of this year’s progress has undoubtedly been due to the contribution made by Bryan Walker. Since joining HT as my co-blogger late last year, he’s contributed 119 posts, and built up a remarkable corpus of climate book reviews. His passion for the subject and patience with the more intractable commenters has been a lesson in itself.

A few more details: at the end of December last year, we were averaging about 5,000 unique visitors per month. Over the last couple of months, that’s risen to 17,000 per month — small beer in terms of the big climate blogs, but not bad in NZ terms. Over the last 2 months, Woopra tells me that 43% of visitors came from NZ, accounting for 60% of pageloads (mainly because most commenters are from NZ). The US is in second place (22% of visitors/14% of pageloads), Australia third (8.5%/9.5%), the UK fourth (7%/5%) and Canada fifth (5%/4.5%). We had visitors from 133 countries. The top ten regular readers are Carol Stewart, Rob Taylor, Laurence, Andrew W, Dappledwater, Le Chat Noir, R2D2, scaddenp, CTG and Macro. The top three each made more than 350 visits over the two months — remarkable diligence! I haven’t counted up the comments to see who was the most prolific, but I would guess that Rob and R2 would be up there, probably arguing with each other…

And for 2010? More of the same, only better. With luck, the world may finally get down to serious action on emissions. Fingers crossed, and happy New Year.

Wade in the water

Estimates of the sea level rise that will result from continued global warming continue to increase, with two recent papers adding more evidence that the IPCC AR4 projections were unrealistically low. The rise this century could be as high as 1.9 metres, and the long term response to a warming limited to 2ºC could be 6 – 9 metres the studies suggest. There are also signs that New Zealand planners are beginning to take the issue seriously, with Nelson and Wellington both considering the impacts of sea level rises of over a metre.

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The Wizard turns on…

Catching up with some of the stuff that got lost in the Copenhagen hubbub, this morning I stumbled on a major new effort to provide interactive climate data and visualisations — the Climate Wizard. This amazing tool is the web front end to a collection of temperature and precipitation data and model projections, and allows the user to create custom maps of climate change over the last fifty years, and projections for the 2050s and 2080s for three IPCC scenarios across 16 models. It provides state-level detail for the USA, but coarser regional and global maps for the rest of the world. It can also create ensembles of model projections on the fly:

[Lead author] Girvetz recommends using one of the newest features added to the program, the ability to create an ensemble of some or all of the 16 models. Want to average the temperatures of, say, the 12 climate models that forecast the largest temperature increases? Climate Wizard can do so almost instantaneously. [Source]

The background to the Wizard (a joint effort of the University of Washington, University of Southern Mississippi and The Nature Conservancy) is described in this PLoS One paper.

Apart from being a very interesting way of looking into temperature data and projections, it is also a tool set that can be extended by the addition of extra data: the authors suggest they could include “simulations of global vegetation, fire, water runoff, species range shifts, agriculture, sea level rise, heat stroke, disease, and food security.” They also suggest that the Climate Wizard could provide a basis for web “mash-ups” with services like Google Earth/Maps to help with public education on climate change. Highly recommended.

[Flaming Lips]

I wish it could be Christmas every day

It doesn’t seem to matter how long I live down here (and it will be 14 years, in a matter of weeks), I still think the man in the moon’s upside down, and Christmas carols don’t sound right when it’s 27ºC and you’ve just barbecued sausages for a Christmas Eve supper. Nevertheless, Hot Topic will be making determined efforts to be jolly, and if the surgical reconstruction of the turkey I’ve just boned goes to plan, then I’ll be far too stuffed to blog for a day or two. Bryan may have other ideas, but HT is likely to be on skeleton service for a week or so. I’ve got a couple of posts in mind, but Mum’s mince pies (the best in the world, of course) must come first. Compliments of the season to one and all, ignore the ghost of Christmas future for a few weeks, and here’s a little something to warm your heart…

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After Copenhagen: new world disorder

coplogoIt’s a bit like reading the runes — trawling through reactions to the events of the last couple of weeks, trying to work out what the Copenhagen Accord means. I don’t mean a parsing of the words, though translating the language of diplomacy is never trivial, but what the various parties to the Accord, and the rest of the world, think it means — and crucially, what that implies for future action to reduce emissions.

For background, read this excellent BBC analysis of Copenhagen, and Joe Romm’s interesting take at Climate Progress (which refers to Bill McKibben’s reactions at Grist, plus there’s a more considered McKibben article at e360), but the article that really helped to crystallise my thoughts is Mark Lynas’ insider’s account of the final phases of negotiations:

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