Rio wrap: a real limp deal (where’s the way out?)

So it ended, as have most of the recent UN conferences on climate change, with a statement of platitudes and good intentions but nothing in the way of firm commitments to action. George Monbiot called the conference text 283 paragraphs of fluff, The Economist called the outcome “a limp agreement” and “a poor result for a summit billed by some as a “once in a generation” chance to save the planet from its intolerable burden.” Despite warnings of ecological tipping points looming, and the world’s top scientific organisations urging action on population and consumption, the leaders of the world (or at least, the ones who could be bothered to turn up) managed only to boot the ball downfield about as effectively as an English footballer in a penalty shoot out. It was all just too difficult. So they left it for another day — perhaps another generation — to sort out.

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Still time for the energy revolution

The International Energy Agency (IEA) continues to plug the energy transformation necessary if we are to have any hope of staying within a 2oC rise in global temperature.  This month has seen the publication of Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 (ETP 2012) in which they explain the technologies and behaviours that according to the press release “will revolutionise the entire energy system and unlock tremendous economic benefits between now and 2050”.  My references to the book’s content in what follows are derived from the executive summary. (The book is priced.)

ETP 2012 argues that the technologies we already possess are adequate to the task of cutting emissions drastically if used in an integrated way. The resultant overhaul of the world’s energy system by 2050 will not come cheap. Considerable extra investment money will be needed, $36 trillion by their calculation. But that is genuine investment, not cost, and moreover investment with an excellent return of $100 trillion in savings through the reduced use of fossil fuel. Investing in clean energy makes excellent economic sense at the same time as assisting in the mitigation of climate change.

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Business NZ: hands off our ETS handouts

Why is Business NZ putting its proverbial head above the parapet and expressing a view on the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (the NZETS)? In this post, Simon Johnson argues that the ETS gives us the “Eyes Glaze Over” syndrome as it is a dead horse being flogged by the usual suspects. The NZETS is toothless by design. In both respects, Business NZ has got the Emissions Trading Scheme exactly how they want it.

Phil O’Reilly, the CEO of business lobby group Business NZ, has just written an opinion piece in the Herald on the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (the NZETS).

I think I can guess what you are thinking.

“Oh no, an article about the NZETS…just the mention of it sucks the life out of me. I bet it has attracted a whole lot of crackpot denier comments. It’s so complex and full of jargon I don’t really know what to think about it. I find the whole subject just a turn-off. My Eyes are Glazing Over.

This is the entirely natural MEGO response, but you need to fight it! Most discussions of the NZETS descend into flogging the dead horse in order for the snake to swallow the elephant in the room sort of circularity.

We need to realise that this ETS inertia works to the advantage of the parties who gain from the current NZETS. That is of course, the big emitter business members of Business NZ. So, obtain a coffee or other stimulant and read on. I can help you through this. I have waded through Phil O’Reilly’s NZETS musings so you don’t have to.

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Polar projections

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This stunning view of the Arctic and the northern hemisphere was captured by the Suomi-NPP satellite a couple of weeks ago. You can clearly see where the Arctic sea ice is beginning to melt and break up (the bluish bits of offshore ice). More on the image at the Earth Observatory. Meanwhile, new research indicates that extreme Arctic warming and the break-up of the West Antarctic ice sheet may be closely linked, according to evidence from an amazing lakebed core from Russia’s Lake El’gygytgyn ((I’m glad The Climate Show is on sabbatical and I don’t have to attempt to pronounce that…)). From the Science Daily report:

Brigham-Grette, the lead U.S. scientist says, “What we see is astonishing. We had no idea that we’d find this. It’s astonishing to see so many intervals when the Arctic was really warm, enough so forests were growing where today we see tundra and permafrost. And the intensity of warming is completely unexpected. The other astounding thing is that we were able to determine that during many times when the West Antarctic ice sheet disappeared, we see a corresponding warm period following very quickly in the Arctic. Arctic warm periods cluster with periods when the Western Antarctic ice sheet is gone.”

Not good news.

Brittany asks the big questions

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Brittany Trilford got her chance to speak truth to power this morning at the Rio + 20 conference, and did an amazing job. It’s worth watching her whole speech, if only to be impressed by the composure a seventeen year old Wellington schoolgirl displays in addressing a roomful of world leaders, but her take-home message was right on the button:

I am here to fight for my future. That is why I’m here. I would like to end by asking you to consider why you’re here and what you can do. Are you here to save face? Or are you here to save us?

Given progress at Rio to date, I think the former rather than the latter, but I’ll comment on that in due course. Transcript of Brittany’s speech below the fold.

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