Like being savaged by a dead sheep…

Airconcover.jpgI suppose it was inevitable that my review of Air Con would attract a response from its author, but I hadn’t expected anything quite as extraordinary as this. Apart from dubbing me “Trufflehunter” and Bryan Walker “Quasimodo” (which is very unfair — Bryan doesn’t have back problems, though he does like the sound of bells — or was it the other way round?), I am apparently now a “sock puppet” for James Hansen. Frankly, if I had Jim’s hand stuck up my posterior orifice, I think I might have noticed… I’ll ignore Wishart’s ad homs though, and merely note that he demonstrates very nicely that an ability to cite scientific papers is no substitute for understanding what they say. It’s a big and complex world out there, but sadly Wishart can only see the bits that suit his ideology.

[PS: I wish I could make a living from truffles alone… 😉 ]

Morning Morgantown

Morgancod.jpgThere have been occasional rumblings over the last year that high profile Kiwi economist and biker Gareth Morgan was working on something to do with climate change. This week TV One has been trailing an item with Morgan in the Sunday programme (tonight, 7-30pm), discussing the results of his research into the subject. This is all part of the launch publicity for his latest book, Poles Apart: The Great Climate Change Debate — which appears to be a cross between a travel book (based on two bike trips, one to the Arctic and the other to Antarctica: the words “lucky bugger” spring unbidden to mind) and an investigation of the state of our understanding of climate change. You can perhaps judge the end result from the fact that Jeanette Fitzsimons is hosting the launch, but if there was any remaining doubt, today’s Herald gives the game away:

Poles Apart, which Morgan co-wrote with freelance writer John McCrystal, concludes the weight of current evidence favours human-made climate change. Morgan said the book was designed to get past emotion and misinformation, such as views expressed by Hide. Hide last year told Parliament climate change data and hypothesis “do not hold together”. He called emission trading schemes “a worldwide scam and swindle”. Morgan said: “When I get a non-scientist belching emotion like that, I just think that’s gutter of politics. I was trying to clear the room of the Rodneys of this world, and whoever his equivalent is on the other [environmental alarmist] side.”

Good stuff. Nice to see that Gareths are sticking together… 😉 And possibly an object lesson for other authors in how to conduct a fair assessment of the state of our understanding of climate.

[Update: Just found the Poles Apart web site which includes some interesting background papers… I’m still digging…]

[Update 2: Sunday segment part one here. Watch the whole thing. There’s a fair bit of Gareth Morgan, a lot of Flannery, some good shots of Carbonscape’s Black Phantom biochar generator, and pictures of a Papua New Guinea island (Takuu) flooding at high tide — and an amazing stat: sea temperatures around the island have warmed by 5ºC over the last 50 years.]

Somethin’ stupid…

Airconcover.jpgI hardly know where to begin with this book. It appears to come from another planet; it has a view of the world so far removed from the reality that most of us operate in that it’s difficult to know whether the author is misguided, malicious, or malignant. Consider the mental space occupied by someone who is willing to write, publish and promote this (p247):

What they [“wild greens”] really mean is that they want ordinary families and kids to become extinct, leaving space for the Green elite to run the planet and enjoy exclusive bird-watching excursions while feasting on the bones of six year olds who’d earlier been sold to Asian brothels.

In Air Con: The Seriously Inconvenient Truth About Global Warming, Ian Wishart appears to have held the techniques of Nazi propaganda chief Josef Goebbels a little too close to his heart (he certainly refers to Goebbels often enough… four times in all, the first time on p16). An intense dislike of all things “green” seems to make him lose touch with any concept of good taste or accuracy in a mad rush to denigrate the green movement and environmentalists.

Continue reading “Somethin’ stupid…”

Science rallies round Salinger

jim_salinger.jpg The scientific community in New Zealand and around the world has been buzzing with the news of Jim Salinger’s dismissal by NIWA, and messages of support have been flooding in. This morning’s NZ Herald quotes former colleagues bemused by NIWA’s action:

Former Niwa scientist Andy Reisinger, who now works at Victoria University, said the decision to sack someone of Dr Salinger’s standing for breaking media protocol was “incomprehensible”. “I’m not sure how that can be justified.”

Others are concerned at the increasing bureaucratisation of the research institutes:

Dr Dave Lowe, who left his job as a principal atmospheric scientist at Niwa about 18 months ago, said one reason for his departure was a lack of freedom “to get on with the job”.

“These big Crown research institutions have become dominated by managers. They tend to forget that the bread and butter for the company … comes from its top scientists and they include people like Jim Salinger.”

In this week’s NBR, Tom Frewen’s Media Watch column provides some interesting background on the revamping of NIWA (not available online):

…the board and chief executive then [2007] embarked on a programme of corporatisation, ratcheting up directors’ allowances and executive salaries to attract top talent. NIWA’s 2007-8 annual report reveals that the number of employees on $100,000 – $110,000 doubled from 24 to 51, while those on $110,000 – $120,000 tripled from ten to 30.

Frewen also quotes the new NIWA chief executive , John Morgan, from that same report:

Something we recognise is that the science sector is not too good at promoting itself. We need to better communicate our science. NIWA’s duty is to be experts and confidently present facts. This can be a challenge” Mr Morgan added ominously, “in a media environment where personal opinions and controversy often gain profile.”

Ominous words for Jim, Frewen concludes.

Meanwhile The Press this morning prints a letter of support for Salinger from expat New Zealand scientist professor Peter Lamb of the University of Ohio:

Dr Salinger has demonstrated a remarkable ability to communicate complex scientific information to the public. Few scientists are able to perform this role as well as he does.

Salinger’s also been getting support in Parliament, with Greens co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons asking the hard questions:

John Key said in a speech in 2005 that he didn’t want NZ to keep exporting scientists and importing taxi drivers. This case won’t help him realise his dream.

See also: Nature News, and listen out for RNZ’s Mediawatch tomorrow (May 3).

Unreliable witness

NZETS.jpgDuring my appearance before the ETS Review committee earlier this month I was asked by committee chairperson Peter Dunne to comment on the evidence presented by the submitters who appeared immediately before me — McCabe Environmental Services, being one Bruce McCabe and Kathleen Ryan-McCabe. ACT member John Boscawen was clearly wondering how two sets of evidence could present such diametrically opposed interpretations of the basic facts.

The committee secretariat were kind enough to provide me with a recording of the McCabe’s oral evidence, as well as their written submission. My comments on the MEC submission were delivered to the committee on April 22nd, and are now available on the parliamentary web site here (direct link to PDF). The McCabe’s evidence is here. Not to put too fine a point on it, the MEC evidence is wrong in just about every material respect, choosing as they did to rely on Fred Singer’s Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change booklet as their primary source. You’ll find chapter and verse in my evidence, but I also took the opportunity to provide the committee with a quick list of arguments that signal the presence of cranks arguing for inaction:

  • Cooling since 1998, 2001, 2005, etc
  • There is no correlation between CO2 and temperature…
  • Climate models cannot forecast the future/are unvalidated…
  • Future warming from CO2 will be tiny/the greenhouse effect doesn’t work the way the IPCC thinks it does.
  • The hockey stick is broken.
  • The sun/sunspots/cosmic rays are the real cause.
  • “There is no consensus” or “The science is not settled”.
  • Any mention of Al Gore.

I leave it as an exercise for the reader to see how Bob Carter’s evidence (given today) stacks up against that list…

[PS: At the recent European Geophysical Union meeting Fred Singer’ announced his NIPCC is not yet dead. Apparently there’s an 800 page report due this year. Must be costing Heartland a fortune…]