Fourteen days to seal history’s judgment on this generation

coplogoThis editorial was published yesterday by 56 newspapers around the world in 20 languages including Chinese, Arabic and Russian. No newspapers in New Zealand or Australia carried the message. As a call to action, I believe it’s worth featuring here in full, and I am happy to endorse both the content and the sentiment expressed. The text was drafted by a Guardian team during more than a month of consultations with editors from more than 20 of the papers involved. Like the Guardian most of the newspapers took the unusual step of featuring the editorial on their front page.

Today 56 newspapers in 45 countries take the unprecedented step of speaking with one voice through a common editorial. We do so because humanity faces a profound emergency.

Unless we combine to take decisive action, climate change will ravage our planet, and with it our prosperity and security. The dangers have been becoming apparent for a generation. Now the facts have started to speak: 11 of the past 14 years have been the warmest on record, the Arctic ice-cap is melting and last year’s inflamed oil and food prices provide a foretaste of future havoc. In scientific journals the question is no longer whether humans are to blame, but how little time we have got left to limit the damage. Yet so far the world’s response has been feeble and half-hearted.

Climate change has been caused over centuries, has consequences that will endure for all time and our prospects of taming it will be determined in the next 14 days. We call on the representatives of the 192 countries gathered in Copenhagen not to hesitate, not to fall into dispute, not to blame each other but to seize opportunity from the greatest modern failure of politics. This should not be a fight between the rich world and the poor world, or between east and west. Climate change affects everyone, and must be solved by everyone.

The science is complex but the facts are clear. The world needs to take steps to limit temperature rises to 2ºC, an aim that will require global emissions to peak and begin falling within the next 5-10 years. A bigger rise of 3-4ºC — the smallest increase we can prudently expect to follow inaction — would parch continents, turning farmland into desert. Half of all species could become extinct, untold millions of people would be displaced, whole nations drowned by the sea. The controversy over emails by British researchers that suggest they tried to suppress inconvenient data has muddied the waters but failed to dent the mass of evidence on which these predictions are based.

Few believe that Copenhagen can any longer produce a fully polished treaty; real progress towards one could only begin with the arrival of President Obama in the White House and the reversal of years of US obstructionism. Even now the world finds itself at the mercy of American domestic politics, for the president cannot fully commit to the action required until the US Congress has done so.

But the politicians in Copenhagen can and must agree the essential elements of a fair and effective deal and, crucially, a firm timetable for turning it into a treaty. Next June’s UN climate meeting in Bonn should be their deadline. As one negotiator put it: “We can go into extra time but we can’t afford a replay.”

At the deal’s heart must be a settlement between the rich world and the developing world covering how the burden of fighting climate change will be divided — and how we will share a newly precious resource: the trillion or so tonnes of carbon that we can emit before the mercury rises to dangerous levels.

Rich nations like to point to the arithmetic truth that there can be no solution until developing giants such as China take more radical steps than they have so far. But the rich world is responsible for most of the accumulated carbon in the atmosphere – three-quarters of all carbon dioxide emitted since 1850. It must now take a lead, and every developed country must commit to deep cuts which will reduce their emissions within a decade to very substantially less than their 1990 level.

Developing countries can point out they did not cause the bulk of the problem, and also that the poorest regions of the world will be hardest hit. But they will increasingly contribute to warming, and must thus pledge meaningful and quantifiable action of their own. Though both fell short of what some had hoped for, the recent commitments to emissions targets by the world’s biggest polluters, the United States and China, were important steps in the right direction.

Social justice demands that the industrialised world digs deep into its pockets and pledges cash to help poorer countries adapt to climate change, and clean technologies to enable them to grow economically without growing their emissions. The architecture of a future treaty must also be pinned down – with rigorous multilateral monitoring, fair rewards for protecting forests, and the credible assessment of “exported emissions” so that the burden can eventually be more equitably shared between those who produce polluting products and those who consume them. And fairness requires that the burden placed on individual developed countries should take into account their ability to bear it; for instance newer EU members, often much poorer than “old Europe”, must not suffer more than their richer partners.

The transformation will be costly, but many times less than the bill for bailing out global finance — and far less costly than the consequences of doing nothing.

Many of us, particularly in the developed world, will have to change our lifestyles. The era of flights that cost less than the taxi ride to the airport is drawing to a close. We will have to shop, eat and travel more intelligently. We will have to pay more for our energy, and use less of it.

But the shift to a low-carbon society holds out the prospect of more opportunity than sacrifice. Already some countries have recognized that embracing the transformation can bring growth, jobs and better quality lives. The flow of capital tells its own story: last year for the first time more was invested in renewable forms of energy than producing electricity from fossil fuels.

Kicking our carbon habit within a few short decades will require a feat of engineering and innovation to match anything in our history. But whereas putting a man on the moon or splitting the atom were born of conflict and competition, the coming carbon race must be driven by a collaborative effort to achieve collective salvation.

Overcoming climate change will take a triumph of optimism over pessimism, of vision over short-sightedness, of what Abraham Lincoln called “the better angels of our nature”.

It is in that spirit that 56 newspapers from around the world have united behind this editorial. If we, with such different national and political perspectives, can agree on what must be done then surely our leaders can too.

The politicians in Copenhagen have the power to shape history’s judgment on this generation: one that saw a challenge and rose to it, or one so stupid that we saw calamity coming but did nothing to avert it. We implore them to make the right choice.

Links: Guardian original, how the editorial was compiled, the 56 newspapers. Distributed under a Creative Commons license.

CRU emails show fraud? Yeah, right.

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Want to know just how much you have to read into the stolen CRU emails to uncover fraud? This excellent Youtube video explains the background to two of the more widely quoted passages — and in passing presents a few of the absurd accusations from the likes of Limbaugh and Beck in the USA. For members of the reality-based community, those sections may be painful. The whole thing’s well worth a watch — if only for the most creative use of the phrase “febrile nitwits” I’ve come across this year. Presenter “potholer54” has a Youtube channel devoted to climate and science issues, which is also well worth exploring.

NZ temps: more stations, no adjustments, still warming

NIWA has released details of a newly calculated long term temperature series for New Zealand, based on 11 stations that have had no major site moves or significant adjustments made to their raw data. Running from 1930 to present, the series shows that significant warming has taken place, confirming that the national temperature series recently attacked in a shonky analysis published by the NZ Climate “Science” Coalition and Climate Conversation Group is not only pointing in the right direction, but actually warming a little more slowly than the new series.

Here’s a graph of the new compilation:

The stations used in the analysis are Raoul Island, Tauranga Airport, Ruakura (Hamilton), Gisborne Airport, Chateau Tongariro, Palmerston North DSIR/AgResearch, Westport Airport, Molesworth, Queenstown, Invercargill Airport and Campbell Island. All were identified by Jim Salinger as offering consistent long term records requiring little or no adjustment for site moves or other influences. Salinger’s calculations were confirmed separately by NIWA’s chief climate scientist Jim Renwick, and the results were identical. Over the period, warming of 1ºC is seen.

Bottom line? Unless there’s a significant “urban heat island” at places like Molesworth Station, warming over New Zealand and in the wider NZ region is undeniable.

Continue reading “NZ temps: more stations, no adjustments, still warming”

Goodness gracious me

Bryan Walker, my esteemed co-blogger and assiduous reviewer of books on climate, is taking a short break from duties at Hot Topic. He’s going into hospital today to prepare for heart surgery later in the week (he needs a new aortic valve). He should be back in the reins before Christmas, but in the meantime I hope you’ll join me in wishing him well. Being away from the internet for a while will probably do his blood pressure no harm, either…

[Peter Sellers & Sophia Loren]

Climate Change 101: an educational resource

Resolve falters before the intimidating size of the IPCC 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). There are, of course, summaries, but what Andy Reisinger of Victoria University has attempted in his new book  Climate Change 101: An Educational Resource is more than a summary.  It is better described as an accessible overview of the ground AR4 more extensively covers. He aims to provide for senior high school students, university undergraduates or interested lay persons a systematic account of the scientific knowledge relevant to climate change and the response we need to make to its impacts. He succeeds well. All the main elements of a complex field are included and the book is packed with information, but a clear line of exposition is maintained throughout which assists a patient reader to understand how all this material contributes to the full picture. Reisinger was no doubt well prepared for his task by working as an editor of the AR4 Synthesis Report.

An outline of what the book contains gives little idea of the complexities of the author’s presentation, but I’ll indicate its broad framework. The first half deals with the basic science and Reisinger builds his material in four steps which make the logic of the science very clear.  The first step is to look at observable changes in climate and their effects, without any assumptions as to what might be causing them.  The climate is warming, unequivocally. Observable impacts of the warming are apparent in changes in such areas as coral reefs, agriculture and forestry, physical systems like glacier lakes and river flows, and various ecosystems.

The second step is to enquire what is driving these observed climate changes.  Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are an obvious candidate, but Reisinger stresses the need to demonstrate that only the increased greenhouse gas concentrations can account for the warming. Models have been important here. No other cause has left its fingerprint.

Step three considers projections for future changes. They include continuing increases in temperature, continuing sea level rise with an uncertain upper level because of the poorly understood dynamics of ice sheet glacier flow, changes in ice melt and snow cover, changes in regional precipitation, non-linear changes in climatic extremes. The complications of feedbacks are explored in this section.

Step four traverses many of the likely impacts which will result from the changing climate, in a range including effects on water supply, eco-system consequences, food supply, coastal zone threats, health effects, and the frequency of extreme events. The impacts are likely to be very unevenly distributed across different regions.

It’s a natural progression to move to consider how we can deal with the projected impacts of climate change, and the second half of the book centres on the two complementary strategies of adaptation and mitigation. The first increases our resilience to cope with the expected impacts. The second limits the scale of future impacts by limiting and reducing further emissions of greenhouse gases. The surveys of the two approaches are detailed and comprehensive. The way the two are combined to minimise risks and damages is important. The questions he discusses at this point include: How do we best balance our global efforts between adaptation and mitigation? How much mitigation is necessary to keep global impacts and adaptation needs at a manageable level? At what level should we aim to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations, and how quickly do we need to reduce emissions to get there? How do we know it’s worth the cost?

An important chapter explores the relationship between climate change and development, explaining how understanding the interactions between the two can help us address both challenges together rather than playing them off against each other.

Finally he considers how the global response to climate change has developed through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, and other processes.  Thorny questions beset the search for agreement on the path ahead, and he writes with full appreciation of the difficulties for the various interests involved. Finding a fair and equitable balance of efforts between different country groups is a major stumbling block, even when most agree that greenhouse gases should be stabilised at no more than 450 ppm CO2-eq. Reisinger’s concluding reflection acknowledges the complications and frustrations of the process but affirms our personal responsibility to remain engaged with an issue for which we will be accountable decades from now.

Those are the bare bones of the book, but its value lies in the thoroughness of its coverage and the patience of its explanations. It is a painstaking work. There are no hasty conclusions, few stones left unturned, no legitimate interests ignored.  It should serve its declared educational purpose well.