The high Tibetan plateau, sometimes called the “third pole
The roof’s melting…
The high Tibetan plateau, sometimes called the “third pole
Wetter and drier: we did it
The new Nature paper that prompted yesterday’s post on rainfall intensity is covered in detail by the BBC and New Scientist. Rainfall patterns around the globe are shown to be changing in response to increasing greenhouse gases, in line with model predictions. From New Scientist:
Tropical regions north of the equator, including such areas as the Sahel in Africa which borders the Sahara desert, have already begun to get even drier and will continue to do so, the data show. Regions in the far north, including Canada, Northern Europe and Russia, will get wetter, as will the southern tropics.
The magazine also quotes the paper’s lead author, Francis Zwiers of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis in Toronto, on changes in rainfall intensity:
Zwiers says an important message from the combined models is that they consistently show that, for all regions, there will be a significant increase in extremes of precipitation – both floods and droughts. Thus, even desert areas that will undergo serious drying could simultaneously suffer greater risks of flash flooding. “More or less uniformly across all the models, these extreme events will become more intense just about everywhere,” he says.
Time to reassess flood risks in NZ, perhaps.
Wet times in Blighty, but “Med melts
If ever there was an image that captures the triumph of hope over adversity, or the stoic nature of the British, it’s this one (credit: BBC/“Andrew in Gloucester
Howard’s carbon conversion
There’s an Australian federal election on the way, and – bless his cotton socks – John Howard has discovered there are votes in carbon policy. Over the last few days Howard has announced a national cap and trade programme for greenhouse gases as part of a new A$627 million climate change initiative, coupled with subsidies for solar hot water systems in schools, and an A$1,000 rebate for domestic installations. The carbon trading mechanism will not begin until 2011, covers only 55% of Australian emissions, and the administration has not announced how big the cap will be. Unsurprisingly, this has been criticised by environmental campaigners, as New Scientist reports:
Caroline Fitzpatrick, of Greenpeace Australia accuses Howard of yielding to pressure from another group – Australia’s powerful coal industry – by announcing what amounts to a delaying tactic in carbon trading, rather than an effective new carbon-reduction scheme.
No doubt NZ’s Greenhouse Policy Coalition will renew its calls for the government on this side of the Tasman to match Howard’s cautious approach. Meanwhile, the Australia Institute has released a paper (press release, full paper [both PDF]), that calculates Australia’s emissions budget for the 21st century based on a “contract and converge
NIWA’s new climate projections coming soon
The Herald managed a sneak peek at NIWA’s latest round of climate projections last week:
Scientists expect New Zealand’s mean temperature will rise by an average 1.8C by the 2080s. By 2100, there will be up to 70 more days with temperatures over 30C, and frosty days will also drop, by five to 20 days in the North Island, and 10-30 days in the South Island. Snowlines will rise and westerly winds will be 20 per cent stronger. Severe droughts are likely to occur up to four times as often, but heavy rain will be more frequent.
Full results will not be available until September at the earliest, but I’m breathing a deep sigh of relief because the new study – based on the global climate modelling used in the IPCC’s Fourth Report – confirms earlier work, and that’s what I used in Hot Topic. Brett Mullen told the Herald:
“You don’t really want to have to reverse what you were saying before, but there certainly were some differences from what we saw in the first assessment. I think we’re on a firmer basis now.