Author: Bryan Walker

Friedman continues to represent the science.

Thomas Friedman, the author of Hot, Flat and Crowded reviewed here on Hot Topic, continues in his New York Times column to accurately reflect what climate scientists are saying .  Saturday’s column is a fine example. As Gareth did in his recent article in the Press Friedman starts by pointing out that “climate change is happening faster and will bring bigger changes quicker than we anticipated just a few years ago.”  

He quotes Christopher Field, director of the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology at Stanford University: ‘We are basically looking now at a future climate that’s beyond anything we’ve considered seriously in climate model simulations.’

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Has it come to this?

The Vanishing Face of Gaia: A Final Warning

James Lovelock is renowned for his Gaia theory: using metaphor to illuminate science, he has argued that the earth is a living planet, a self-regulating system made up of organisms, surface rocks, the ocean and the atmosphere interacting to provide conditions favourable for life. Three years ago, in The Revenge of Gaia, he declared that our burning of fossil fuels, our replacement of too many eco-systems with farmland and our overload of human population had put Gaia under threat and badly impaired her ability to produce conditions comfortable for life and we will suffer dire consequences.

The Vanishing Face of Gaia: A Final Warning is a follow-up and the little shreds of hope that one could sometimes discern in its predecessor are even less apparent, at least from the perspective with which I view life.  Lovelock himself is almost lyrical in his final vision of a future Gaia adjusted to a hotter state, populated by the remnant of human survivors from the disasters ahead, survivors strong in mind and body and ready to start a new evolution in which our intelligence will be beneficial to Gaia and may make of her an intelligent planet. (I don’t pretend to understand what he means by that.) I’m afraid my attention is on the billions who fail to make it to the lifeboat and I derive no consolation at all from Lovelock’s vision.

However that’s at the end of the book. An early remark perhaps suggests how he gets there. He describes himself as a scientist who works independently of any human agency:  ”Independence allows me to consider the health of the Earth without the constraint that the welfare of mankind comes first.”

He is critical of the IPCC and its reliance on models, not because he is a contrarian or lacks respect for the scientists involved but because its models are not correctly forecasting the course of climate change revealed by observation.  They have underestimated the rate of sea level rise and the rate of melting sea ice in the Arctic. They have not taken into account the progressive decline in the population of ocean algae, which act to cool the Earth in a number of ways. They do not in his opinion make use of the Gaia theory predictions of climate change but still act from within the various scientific specialisations as if Earth were a dead planet.  He produces a simple model of his own based on Gaia theory which shows an abrupt 5 degree rise in global mean temperature at an atmospheric CO2 level of between 400 and 500 parts per million.  The smooth path of slowly and sedately rising temperatures predicted by the IPCC will not be borne out in reality. There will be spells of constancy followed by jumps to greater heat.

Lovelock records with approval James Hansen’s call for a far greater reduction in CO2 than that suggested as adequate by the IPCC reports. He notes that Hansen’s concern is based on recent observations and on the Earth’s climate history and thinks this means that Hansen himself must have doubts about the adequacy of models based on atmospheric physics alone.

In fact Lovelock’s view of the possible changes ahead does not seem radically different from those of many other scientists who freely acknowledge that the IPCC predictions are proving too conservative.  The scientific consensus notion against which Lovelock rails does not seem to prevent them from pointing out inadequacies in the models. My understanding is that those working with the models are constantly seeking to improve them and are well aware of their limitations. The positive feedback potential from the loss of land-based ecosystems, the desertification of the land and ocean surfaces, and the loss of polar ice is frequently discussed by scientists I have read.

Where Lovelock differs most markedly from scientists equally aware of the dangers he points to is in the fact that he seems to think those outcomes already inescapable. So strongly is he convinced of this that he is roundly dismissive of many attempts at mitigation, especially if they carry a green tinge. Reducing carbon footprints and planning to drastically lower emissions are at best romantic nonsense and at worst a dangerous distraction from the real task.  We can’t save our familiar world.  What we need to do is to prepare for the coming changes in what will be a human world of lifeboat islands (the UK and NZ prominent among them) and a few continental oases in favourable latitudes. Greens who put their faith in renewable energy, and especially those who view negatively the development of nuclear energy, are sabotaging the future of the lifeboat societies.  He is particularly scornful of wind turbines, allowing they may perhaps be of some use in some places, but certainly not in his part of the world. Unexpectedly he presents solar energy in a favourable light on the grounds that it is not visionary – he even attaches the word hope to it, though any hope the book offers is always severely qualified.

He does allow for some geo-engineering possibilities, though without much conviction. Various schemes to manipulate the planetary albedo – sunlight reflected back to space – are acknowledged. Karl Lackner’s proposals to strip CO2 from the atmosphere and sequester it as described in Broecker and Kunzig’s Fixing Climate is treated with respect. Fertilisation with iron to encourage algal blooms that would cool the Earth by removing CO2 may be effective. He explains his own suggestion, in collaboration with Chris Rapley, of large pipes set vertically in the ocean to draw up cooler, nutrient-rich water to encourage algal blooms.  Most promising of all would be the widespread use of biochar. However he checks any undue optimism by recalling that whatever we do as geoengineers is unlikely to stop dangerous climate change or prevent death on a scale that makes all previous wars, famines and disasters small. Geoengineering would be better than business as usual, but that’s about the most that can be said for it.

The crux for Lovelock is that there are far too many people living as we do. Gaia has too many humans.  He briefly acknowledges that vegetarian diets and food synthesis by chemical and biochemical industries might help, but is pretty sure it will never happen this way. The effects of prolonged and unremitting drought, the greatest threat to humanity from global heating, will mean food and water shortages which will kill off most of us. Gaia will save herself by severely culling us.

Lovelock is a compelling writer. His prose is elegant and clear and his books packed with intelligent insights.  One can’t help but pay him attention. He is an able exponent of the worst case, but that doesn’t make his depressing prognostications right.  He himself praises the work of James Hansen, Tim Flannery and Al Gore among others, people who are not at all ready to give up on mitigation. I’m with them, and hope we can yet avoid the catastrophic and deeply depressing human future Lovelock foresees, through a combination of the means by which he sets little store.

Two Miles Down in Time

The Two-Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future Richard Alley’s The Two-Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future explains why ice cores are such a mine of information about past climates. He was right there when the ice cores from central Greenland were being extracted between 1989 and 1993.  There had been earlier extractions in places easier of access, but ice sheet flow had affected the lower layers and it was not until drilling was set up in a more central location that good records were obtained for the past 110,000 years – and less reliable records for longer than that. His story of how the camps were established, how the drilling of the 5.2 inch (for the sake of his American readers he doesn’t use metric measurements) cores was done, how the core sections were transported and stored, is interesting in itself. But the riveting chapters of the book are his explanations of the annual layers of snow being compressed to ice and stretching and thinning over time as the ice flows (a cardinal fact, the flow of ice) and of the information those annual layers contain and how it is coaxed from them.

In broad terms he explains that snow is compressed into ice under the weight of more snowfall in the top 200 feet or so of the ice sheet over a century or two as most of the air is squeezed out of it (though a very important little bit remains). By the time that foot-thick layer of ice has buried half-way through the ice sheet the layer has been stretched and thinned to half a foot in thickness; by seven-eighths of the way down it is only one-eighth foot thick and so on. As the layers stretch the ends melt very near the coast or break off as icebergs. Layers near the bed of the ice sheet are very thin, stretch and thin only a little, and don’t move down much.

How are the annual layers distinguished from each other?  There is a difference in appearance of winter and summer snow because of the transformation to coarser grained hoarfrost driven by the sun which only shines in summer. Readily observable in cores from shallow levels, the difference remains distinct even in the thinner annual ice layers where the remaining air has been trapped as bubbles.  Complications arise in ice a mile deep, when bubbles are replaced by clathrates, but late-winter dusty layers of soil particles blown on to the ice sheet can aid observation – or observers can wait for a few months after the ice has reached the surface when the bubbles begin to reapppear as the clathrates break down.  Apart from visible appearance there are other aids to dating the layers including volcanic fallout, electrical conductivity, and ice-isotopic ratios.

Once dated, what can we learn from the ice-cores?  Past temperatures for one thing. The isotopic composition of water that fell as rain or snow gives a reliable indication of temperature at the time, and has been checked against temperatures measured in the borehole (in a more complicated way than this bald statement may suggest, which he explains with a fascinating kitchen analogy).  We can also learn from the dust which the wind has deposited on the ice sheet (once dry and wet deposition have been teased apart) such things as how much sea salt and continental dust were blowing around, how many fires were occurring upwind, how well we were shielded from cosmic rays, how many meteorites were being dumped on earth, and much more.  Finally, the level of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide and methane can be determined from the air bubbles trapped in the ice. These gases are normally mixed globally by the winds, and checking the Greenland record against Antartica and high mountain glaciers has revealed a high reliability – so high that ice-core gases can now be used to correlate cores.

At this nearly half-way point in the book Alley turns to illuminating discussions of past climates and some ideas as to why the changes happened.  He announces his punch lines for the rest of the book. Past climate has been wildly variable with faster changes than anything agricultural industrial humans have ever faced.  Climate can be rather stable if nothing is causing it to change, but when ‘pushed’ it often jumps suddenly to something different rather than changing gradually. Such ‘pushes’ in the past have included drifting continents, wiggles in Earth’s orbit, surges of great ice sheets, sudden reversals in ocean circulation, and others. Small ‘pushes’ have cause large changes because many processes amplify the pushes – greenhouse gases are pobably the most important of these amplifiers.  We humans can foul our own nest – and we can clean it up.

I won’t follow this summary statement into the detail of the remaining chapters of the book.  Suffice to say that he is a master of illuminating analogy, writes with admirable clarity and establishes a happy rapport with the reader. He doesn’t take background knowledge in his readers for granted, but supplies relevant explanation and information as he goes so that the book is readily accessible to the non-scientist prepared to make a reasonable effort to follow the acount. His discussions are moderate in tone and always acknowledge uncertainties.

The book was published some time back, in 2000.  The science of climate change is advancing rapidly and the tentative nature of some of his prognostications has possibly firmed up somewhat since then.  He has recently commented:

For me, the 2007 IPCC provided neither a best estimate nor an upper bound on sea-level rise because of lack of understanding of ice-sheet changes.

He made that comment to Andy Revkin of the New York Times who had contacted him after he was recently co-awarded the 2009 Tyler Prize for environmental achievement.  He also said the following:

We know so much about climate science, and environmental science in general, and the gap between the knowledge of the scientific community and the general community is so large, and so much misinformation is in circulation, that the leading task now is probably education and outreach. We need to provide people, including policymakers, with the knowledge background that will allow them to do their jobs better.

Alley himself must be very well suited to that education and outreach task.  I thought that on the basis of his book, but I find he has other communication skills as well.  Song and dance no less!

Blenheim biochar gets global attention

carbonscape.jpgCarbonscape, the New Zealand company working on making charcoal from a microwaving process discussed here and here on Hot Topic, has just announced that they are one of only five companies to make the shortlist in a global competition, the Financial Times’ Climate Change Challenge.

The competition seeks the most innovative solution to the effects of climate change. The winner, to be chosen by Financial Times readers and a panel of judges will receive a US$75,000 prize, sponsored by Hewlett Packard, to help bring their service to market. I notice Richard Branson, IPCC Chair Rajendra Pachauri and Jonathon Porritt among the eight judges.

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Melting Point

Melting Point

Eric Dorfman is an ecologist.  He has been aware of the science of climate change since his doctoral student days in the 1990s but he credits Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth with inspiring him to make a larger contribution towards addressing the issue. Hence his book Melting Point: New Zealand and the Climate Change Crisis, published last September.

The book is not long, and is written in a relaxed style accessible to the general reader.  He begins with a brief overview of the global science, centring particularly on carbon sinks, carbon pumps and feedback loops as keys to understanding climate change. Debating whether climate change is real is senseless. Credible scientific opinion is unequivocal.  The risk of doing nothing in the face of the predicted consequences is foolhardy, and the problem is not beyond us.

Turning his focus to New Zealand he begins with the climate, pointing out that unlike Europe which is experiencing unprecedented weather patterns we are likely to see an intensification of the weather patterns we already have, much of it driven by an an intensification of the pattern of westerly winds and warmer sea surface temperatures.  He considers the effects of rising sea levels and details some of them; even one metre will cause an enormous and costly mess for the country – farmland around Invercargill inundated, salt water intrusion in many agricultural areas, water seep on to Wellington airport, Tamaki Drive under water, and much more.

He ranges through several aspects of New Zealand life explaining how they may be affected by the coming changes.  Primary production, human health, natural ecosystems and socio-economic impacts are the main areas considered. He offers something of a plug for organic farming as a goal, and has an intriguing look at farm animal alternatives such as beefalo, ostriches and emus, and angora goats. He explains the habitat constraints likely to be experienced by species both on land and in the sea, and the extinctions which may result. Human health is also likely to be affected, though less severely than in developing countries. Mosquito-borne and water-borne diseases are surveyed and psychological health considered. Likely impacts on the economy conclude with a positive reference to the previous government’s stance on carbon neutrality and emissions control.

Comparatively speaking we will fare better than most countries, though this is scant reassurance in a world mostly worse affected. For instance, Dorfman asks at one point how NZ will react to the arrival of most or all of the populations of small Pacific Islands such as Tuvalu as rising sea levels make their islands uninhabitable. A chapter on choices covers a familiar range from making personal emission reductions to engaging in political pressure.

The book is a reasonable and relatively gentle discussion around what may already lie ahead for New Zealand in the uncertain future into which climate change is launching us. That very uncertainty makes it difficult to be precise or trenchant, but it is important to be thinking ahead and realising that we are preparing a different world by our greenhouse gas emissions. Hopefully Dorfman represents a wide group of people who are doing just that.  Not that he is happy for us to continue along our present path.  Far from it. He rests what hope he can muster for the future on the decisions of international forums and the actions of superpowers and the author sees an important lobbying function for New Zealand in these arenas. One hopes he is not being too optimistic about New Zealand’s readiness to lobby.  We are getting mixed messages from government at present