What’s climate? Ask a real scientist…

A few weeks ago, our beloved Climate “Science

Hot spring

According to the US National Climate Data Centre, global temperature during the boreal (northern hemisphere) spring (Mar – May) 2007 was the third warmest on record. January to May was the warmest recorded, tying for first place with 1998. However, the UK Met Office doubt that 2007 will break 1998’s overall record:

David Parker, a climate variability scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre said: “These latest Met Office figures show that the first four months of 2007 are on track with our global forecast for a warmer-than-average year, but the cool La Nina event developing in the equatorial Pacific could prevent 2007 from being the warmest ever year

GE jet fuel and noisy easyJets

Helen Clark might think that curbing travel to cut carbon is “idiotic

On thin ice

Glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula are thinning and speeding up, according to new research by the British Antarctic Survey. They tracked 300 glaciers using aerial and satellite imagery, and report that 87% are retreating. Ice flow has speeded up by 12% from 1993 to 2003. From the BAS press release:

These observations – that echo recent findings from coastal Greenland – indicate that the cause is melting of the lower glaciers, which flow directly into the sea. As they thin, the buoyancy of the ice can lift the glaciers off their rock beds, allowing them to slide faster.

BBC coverage here.

At the other end of the planet, Reuters has been blogging (here and here) the activities of Koni Steffen of the University of Colorado and Jay Zwally from NASA as they make their annual visit to the Swiss Camp research post high on the Greenland ice sheet. Asked if he thought the IPPC’s fourth report underestimated future sea level increase, Steffen did not pull any punches:

I think it definitely underestimated. We complained heavily before it was released and that’s why they added a few lines that if there is a dynamic response of ice sheets the upper uncertainty might be higher. That tells you that the current IPCC report only takes into account the current understanding. We can model melt but we cannot model the dynamics.

And that’s why I keep covering this stuff…

Meanwhile, two Belgian explorers have been walking across the Arctic from Siberia to Greenland, taking snow measurements to help calibrate a new ESA satellite. ESA were able to help them to avoid early sea ice break-up to the northwest of Greenland in the Lincoln Sea. Story here, with some very cool animated pix of sea ice. For a look at the ice today, go to the NSIDC’s sea ice snapshot. Considerable thinning north of Alaska, where last year there was an unusual polynya. Cryospshere Today shows the same thing.

Climate change: sex change

NZ’s iconic tuatara are threatened by climate change. I’ve got the full story in Hot Topic (the book), but Reuters have beaten me to press. Tuatara eggs incubated above 21.5ºC become males, and climate change is already producing a sex imbalance in the population. Male tuatara on a predator-free island near the top of the South Island already outnumber females by 1.7 times, reports Victoria University researcher Jennifer Moore. Full story on TVNZ and the UK Telegraph.