US should aim for 80% by 2020

Renowned American environmentalist Lester Brown offers measured optimism in an article published in the Washington Post on Sunday. He claims a surprisingly dramatic 9 percent drop in US carbon emissions over the past two years and the promise of further huge reductions.  Part of this decline, he acknowledges, was caused by the recession and higher petrol prices but part of it came from gains in energy efficiency and shifts to carbon-free sources of energy, including record amounts of new wind-generating capacity. He looks ahead to the prospect of further reductions.  

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Big wind could wean China off coal

At least some Americans and Chinese are getting together to work on climate change. A team of researchers from Harvard University and Beijing’s Tsinghua University have been conducting a serious investigation into China’s wind power potential. Their work was the cover story for the Sep 11 issue of Science (sub required) and is reported in  the Harvard Gazette.  MIT’s Technology Review also carries a useful report.  

 “The world is struggling with the question of how do you make the switch from carbon-rich fuels to something carbon-free,” said lead author Michael McElroy, Gilbert Butler Professor of Environmental Studies. “The real question for the globe is: What alternatives does China have?”

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Bird on the wires

bellbird.jpg Another week, another step forward in the relentless march of progress. Hot Topic now has its very own Twitter account: hottopicnz. Why? Is it simply born of the insufferable self-importance of your blogger, or does it have a purpose? Probably both, but I’ll only deal with the latter. In the process of keeping up-to-date with climate issues, I read a lot of stuff that would be nice to blog. There isn’t enough time to do a proper post about everything, so the Hot Topic tweets are little text messages pointing to stuff that I think is interesting (or in the case of goats and windfarms, amusing — if you’re not a goat-owning windfarmer). New blog posts are tweeted automatically, so followers can keep right up to date. An alternative to HT’s RSS feed, using the latest micro-blogging platform. The most recent tweets will appear in the left sidebar, and you can get to the twitter feed by clicking on the timestamps there. Feel free to retweet at will…

[Definitely not Leonard Cohen]

A pillow of winds

WindturbineNot content with being one of NZ’s leading climate cranks, energy consultant Bryan Leyland also has views on wind power that are well out of the mainstream. Muriel Newman’s NZ Centre for Policy Research this week gives Bryan a chance to fulminate about the economics of wind energy:

I believe that, given the high cost and operational problems of wind power, no responsible Board of Directors of a state-owned or private company could — or should — agree to “investing” in windpower. There are better and cheaper alternatives.

Is that so? I thought it might be wise to check Bryan’s take on the business, and so I asked Fraser Clark, chief executive of the NZ Wind Energy Association to take a look at his article and give us an idea of what the real situation is. Here is his analysis…

Electricity generation technology and the way electricity systems are managed are continually evolving. Bryan Leyland’s recent think piece, which criticised wind energy as ‘foolish energy’, failed to consider many of the factors that are influencing the development of modern electricity systems.

Broader energy security concerns are driving the global shift to renewable electricity generation. Uncertainty regarding the supply and price of fossil fuels increases the attractiveness of wind energy as it has no fuel cost, no supply risk, and will not be affected by the introduction of a price on greenhouse gas emissions.

Leaving aside security concerns, which I have discussed elsewhere, many of Mr Leyland’s recent assertions about wind energy are irrelevant, alarmist and unsupported by other, more robust analysis.

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Maybe, maybe not

WindturbineAlthough I emphasised the uncertainties of wind farms in the Waikato in my post a few weeks ago, it was dispiriting to read in the Waikato Times tonight that the massive wind farm Hauauru ma raki, proposed for the coastline south of Port Waikato, might never be built. The six-week Board of Enquiry hearing began this week. Contact Energy’s counsel explained that while the economics of the project looked unfavourable currently, Contact was seeking a ten-year lapse period for the project after consent was granted so that they have certainty that it can be built if and when it is needed. He emphasised that it was critically important to have consents that could be exercised when market conditions were favourable – meaning not just pricing but also such matters as security of electricity supply for the greater Auckland area if there are delays in upgrading the transmission grid.

It looks as if Contact is reluctant to spend as much effort on detailed engineering design for a farm which may not be built as the Board may require for a farm to which it is to give consent. The chairman said “There is huge tension between the flexibility you desire and the effects we need to consider.”

Hardly an auspicious beginning. We’ll keep watch on how things develop.

[GR adds: In related news, Mainpower has announced that it is to appeal the Mt Cass decision to the Emvironment Court. More, later.]