Bus stop (wet day)

homer.jpg A few commenters have wondered recently why I tolerate knee-jerk dissenters like HarryTheHat on Hot Topic. The answer is both easy and complex. I got started on all this climate stuff as a result of a naive belief that if climate cranks could be shown where they were getting the science wrong that they would thank me, amend their views, and move on. From the early days of the NZ C”S”C when their site allowed comments, I enjoyed jousting with cranks, but I was sadly mistaken about their ability to recognise reason when it was presented to them. In that sense, giving Harry (and batnv, et al) room to play is a part of what HT is about. Perhaps one day they’ll remove their rose-tinted spectacles and see the real problem. Perhaps HT will have helped.

It’s also about my dislike of censorship. This is something I share with a blogger called Poneke, who rather bombastically announced back in January:

I believe in freedom of expression, no exceptions. No point of view on any subject should be suppressed.

Imagine my surprise, therefore, when I find that my two most recent attempts to post at his blog have been censored. And that shortly after it became apparent that neither was going to appear, a new “comments policy” page turned up.

A few months ago a commenter here asked me to pop over to Poneke’s Weblog to offer some support in a debate over climate change. I did so, and ended up with another sea ice bet. Since then, I’ve kept an eye on his blog, and commented occasionally on posts related to climate change. The posts seem to have developed a pattern. Poneke discovers the latest bit of crank effluvia (probably by regularly checking the “dissenting voices” side of Denis Dutton’s deliberately misleading Climate Debate Daily site), duly posts about it (often at great length), and then appears to become upset when his readers point out the errors in the original.

Most recently, he posted about noted “dissenter” Roy Spencer’s recent testimony to Congress about negative feedbacks in the climate system. My first comment duly appeared (after a long time “in moderation”), with in-line response from Poneke. Later, George Darroch posted links to Open Mind‘s excellent three-part deconstruction of Spencer’s thinking. I picked up on that, and attempted to post the last paragraph of Tamino’s piece (here), to demonstrate why Spencer doesn’t get much traction in the climate science mainstream. It disappeared. Then a comment from malcolm appeared below, referring to peer-review. I then attempted to post a link to Spencer’s well-documented belief in creationism. Neither post appeared. But Poneke’s new comments policy did. And look at rule one:

No personal abuse of people mentioned in articles or of other commenters, especially abusive remarks about someone’s ethnicity, religious or political beliefs or sexual orientation.

In other words, if Poneke writes about you, you are above criticism on Poneke’s blog. And that seems to apply to all the crank pantheon, from Lindzen and Spencer on down.

Also telling is the final paragraph:

The comments section is not under any direct moderation, but WordPress and Akismet moderate comments with multiple links (a sign of spam), and some names and issues are marked for moderation in an attempt to prevent potentially defamatory comments. As a result, your comment may not appear immediately, though most do.

My name was clearly marked for moderation very early on, but I don’t believe that it had anything to do with defamation. I’m not going to post comments on a site which so transparently stacks the odds against a fair debate. And that’s why Harry and his friends remain “welcome” at Hot Topic. In the last 18 months I’ve only deleted one non-spam comment, and that was at the commenter’s request. I’ve edited one or two for rudeness – and reserve the right to do the same in future.

Poneke’s blog is an interesting place, his posts always well written and often challenging, as you might expect from an established journalist with a long track record. I can’t share his enthusiasm for the minutiae of Wellington’s public transport system, but then I dare say he’d be bored rigid by talk of truffles. And he is at least very sound on Ken Ring. But if he walks like a crank, if he quacks like a crank, then he must be…

You’re the (NZ) first, the last, my everything

NZETS.jpg So what’s happening to the Emissions Trading Scheme legislation? It seems to be stuck in the parliamentary back rooms, presumably because the government is struggling to put together enough votes to get the bill (or a version of it) passed before the election. No Right Turn has been keeping tabs on progress, and is of the opinion that time is rapidly running out.

My own totally unwarranted speculation is that the government has calculated it needs NZ First to get the bill through, and that certain well-publicised problems faced by that party’s leader are holding things up. Labour could probably do a deal with the Greens and Maori Party, but that would mean a tougher scheme and lead to loud squeals from the big emitters. It would give National another stick to beat them with… So Winston it is. Or perhaps isn’t. Whatever, negotiations probably involve a lot of pompous blustering…

I usually try to steer clear of party politics on Hot Topic, and I went to some lengths to make the book as non-partisan as possible. I don’t care who my readers vote for, but I do care that our political parties have sound climate-related policy. I would hope to encourage people to take that into account when voting. When we have an election date, I plan to put together a handy guide…

Anyway, please use this post for all pre-election political commentary.

Ice ice baby

CTarctic4808.jpg The fat lady’s not yet in the building, but her limo’s outside the theatre. There’s another five or six weeks of melting to go, but there’s more than just sea ice melting in the Arctic, and more than my few meagre wagers riding on how summer turns out ‘oop North. Here’s a compendium of interesting recent stuff…

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Ballad of broken seas

CRW_3037.jpg The Ministry for the Environment released an updated Coastal Hazards and Climate Change manual for local government last week, based on work done by NIWA. It incorporates the latest NZ thinking on where sea-levels are heading. If you’re planning to build something that has to last until the end of the century (and that covers a lot of coastal infrastructure), you should allow for half a metre of sea-level rise, and consider the consequences of an increase of up to 80cm. The report says:

For planning and decision timeframes out to the 2090s (2090–2099):

a. a base value sea-level rise of 0.5 m relative to the 1980–1999 average should be used, along with

b. an assessment of the potential consequences from a range of possible higher sea-level rises (particularly where impacts are likely to have high consequence or where additional future adaptation options are limited). At the very least, all assessments should consider the consequences of a mean sea-level rise of at least 0.8 m relative to the 1980–1999 average.

For planning and decision timeframes beyond 2100 where, as a result of the particular decision, future adaptation options will be limited, an allowance for sea-level rise of 10 mm per year beyond 2100 is recommended (in addition to the above recommendation).

Local authorities have a duty to understand this stuff (under the RMA and other legislation), so the report is highly detailed. If you’ve ever hankered after an in-depth understanding the processes that underlie storm surges, beach (and bach) erosion, tidal ranges and tsunamis, there’s no better place to start. If you want to see what impact that sort of rise might have on your area, try Global Warming Art’s excellent Google Maps mashup Sea Level Rise Explorer, or check NASA JPL’s new climate change site for the global sea level picture [Flash required].

Also released last week: the edited highlights (with pretty pictures) version of the Preparing For Climate Change guidance manual published last May which incorporates NIWA’s latest climate projections for NZ. Essential. And free.

Solar wind sculptures

windturbine.gif Time to nail my colours to the tall thing. Submissions on Mainpower’s Mt Cass windfarm consent application close on August 1st, and I’m running out of time to get one in (being busy, and all that). The opposition is getting itself organised, with a web site to co-ordinate dissenters, including a very nice gallery of pictures. I know (and love) this sort of landscape. I live in it.

I have some sympathy for the guys running the site, because I organised/designed/published the “Dump The Dump” web site for opponents of the Kate Valley landfill scheme. We lost, despite generating a record number of opposing submissions. I even did a presentation to the consent hearing, and got a mention in the final judgement. I still think we could have defeated the dump if we’d taken the issue to Christchurch, rather than kept it local and “played by the rules”…

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