Spinning wheel…


Feeling lucky? Spin these roulette wheels and see where the future lies: on the left, if the world takes decisive action to reduce emissions over the next 100 years, and on the right if we don’t. If we do: most likely an increase of 2 – 2.5ºC. If we don’t: most likely is 5 – 6ºC. Produced by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at MIT, the wheels are a novel way to express the uncertainties associated with projections of future climate and the way they interact with policy decisions. The message for policy makers is clear, according to study co-author Ronald Prinn:

“There’s no way the world can or should take these risks,” Prinn says. And the odds indicated by this modeling may actually understate the problem, because the model does not fully incorporate other positive feedbacks that can occur, for example, if increased temperatures caused a large-scale melting of permafrost in arctic regions and subsequent release of large quantities of methane, a very potent greenhouse gas. Including that feedback “is just going to make it worse,” Prinn says.

For a reminder of just what six degrees means, I recommend Mark Lynas. George Monbiot suggests that climate cranks will object to model projections like these:

Climate change deniers hate these models. Why, they say, should we base current policy on scenarios and computer programmes rather than observable facts? But that’s the trouble with the future: you can’t observe it. If you reject the world’s most sophisticated models as a means of forecasting likely climate trends, you must suggest an alternative. What do they propose? Gut feelings? Seaweed? Chicken entrails?

Tea leaves, obviously…

[Blood, Sweat & Tears]

Take the money and run

A little Sunday education: John Bird and John Fortune explain the background to the global financial crisis. While some in Europe argue that carbon targets should be relaxed, others point out that natural losses dwarf the financial, and Mark Lynas argues that any New Deal should be green. [Hat tip: Scoop Review of Books]

[Title reference]


An excellent, thought-provoking article by Mark Lynas in yesterday’s Guardian [UK] examines the greening of the High Street that is transforming British shopping. Lynas points out many of the inconsistencies inherent in green consumerism, and then asks the big question:

At the heart of green consumerism lies a single unanswered question: can ever-increasing resource consumption be truly reconciled with the ecological constraints of a fragile planet?

Tesco supermarket boss Terry Leahy thinks so, and is making his company as green as a supermarket can be, but this doesn’t impress some environmentalists. George Monbiot, ever the master of the pithy phrase, sums it up:

“No political challenge can be met by shopping.