Global warming and the future of New Zealand
The first full review of HT is out. Bryan Walker in the Waikato Times liked the book.
AUT University’s newly established press can be congratulated on their first publication. The subject is vital, the exposition lucid, and the presentation attractive. The book deserves many readers.
Suckers for punishment can hear me interviewed on Tremane Barr’s Prism Webcast News here. The barking during the first five minutes is Peg, the amazingly charming truffle hound, demanding to be let in.
Compare this picture with the one accompanying my last post on this season’s record-breaking sea-ice melt in the Arctic Ocean. More ice has gone, and although the end of the melt season is fast approaching, this year’s low is already about one million square kilometres less than the previous minimum, set in 2005. The NSIDC’s most recent report (Sept 10) also demonstrates that an area of ocean about the size of California is ice-free for the first time since satellite observations began in 1979. As the ocean cools, it will give up heat to the atmosphere. This could delay the onset of the northern hemisphere winter – and perhaps mean a repeat of last year’s mild NH autumn and the late arrival of winter. In turn, this sets up the Arctic for another year of record low ice in 2008, leading to suggestions that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer long before the IPCC expected. From The Guardian [UK]:
Jim Salinger of NIWA gave a talk on climate change and its implications for New Zealand’s wine growers at their annual Romeo Bragato conference, held in Auckland at the end of August.. The Herald reported some of the likely changes:
In the Gisborne area, chardonnay was likely to be replaced by shiraz, grenache and zindafel, while chardonnay and merlot were likely to be replaced by shiraz and malbec in Hawke’s Bay. Wairarapa’s pinot noir could be supplanted by merlot, malbec and cabernet franc grapes while cabernet sauvignon and merlot were likely to replace sauvignon blanc in Marlborough. In Canterbury, sauvignon blanc could replace chardonnay, while the pinot noir very suited to both Canterbury and Otago, could spread out to higher altitude sites in these regions.
Meanwhile, Napa Valley wineries are concerned about predictions that their premium vineyards could be worthless by the second half of this century, and in Alsace growers are reporting that climate change is already having a dramatic impact:
On a cobweb-encrusted rafter above his giant steel grape pressers, Rene Mure is charting one of the world’s most tangible barometers of global warming. The evidence, scrawled in black ink, is the first day of the annual grape harvest for the past three decades. In 1978, it was Oct. 16. In 1998, the date was Sept. 14. This year, harvesting started Aug. 24 — the earliest ever recorded, not only in Mure’s vineyards, but also in the entire Alsace wine district of northeastern France.
Mure wants to experiment with Rhone varietals like syrah, but France’s appellation rules make that difficult.
I bought one of Martin’s pork pies today. After too much yak in Shangri-La, I found myself lusting after something a little more in my own cultural tradition… But as I try to catch up with climate news, I find that Xian Ge Li La is in the news for all the wrong reasons:
KUNMING, September 10 — One of China’s leading tourist landmarks, Meili Snow Mountain, will be devoid of snow within 80 years if global warming trends continue, a meteorological scientist warned on Monday. Liu Jiaxun also said China’s lowest and southernmost glacier, Mingyong, has shrunk by at least 40 meters over the past 13 years. The combined effects of ice melting and drying water sources would have devastating effects downstream, said Liu, deputy director of the Meteorological Bureau of Diqing Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, in northeastern Yunnan Province. Mingyong — at 2,700 meters above sea level and 28.5 degrees north — had the lowest elevation and latitude of all China’s glaciers, said Liu. At 11.7 km long and covering 13 sq. km, it was shrinking faster than any other Chinese glacier, he said.
Sadly, during my visit to the Diqing Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture the Himalayas were shrouded in cloud. It rained. (Picture from Erhai Lake near Lijiang). Catching up will continue soon.
[Update: Pictures of the Meili Snow Mountain and glacier from China View here. The clouds cleared briefly, apparently…]
Readers with functioning short term memories may recall that my local lines company, Mainpower, through its Local Generation subsidiary is planning to build a wind farm on Mt Cass, looking down over the Waipara Valley. The site (or a large chunk of it) can be seen from the comfy chairs on my veranda, testing my commitment to low carbon energy and landscape aesthetics. To help me (and others) come to terms with what this means, Mainpower’s main wind energy people, Andrew Hurley and Todd Mead, have launched a blog covering the planning and development process. It promises to give an interesting insight into the way wind farms are developed, and already demonstrates a refreshing openness about the process. Andrew’s commented here on wind issues, and has been up to Limestone Hills to talk climate blogs and wind, so I wish them luck with their new venture. Not sure about the turbines on the skyline though… 😉
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