Time for an Arctic update and a bit of “original” research. There’s been quite a bit of polar news around, and a rapid freeze-up is underway in the Arctic – so rapid that some are declaring that the sea ice is “back to normal” for the time of year, based on this graph from the Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System in Norway, which shows sea ice area climbing up towards to the average for 1979-2007, within one standard deviation (the grey area). On the other hand, if you look at the equivalent graph at Cryosphere Today, you’ll see that ice area is 1.25m km2 below the average – which in CT’s case is 1979-2000. So the ice is approaching normal, only if you define “normal” as including the significant ice reductions over the last seven years. How encouraging. But this autumn’s freeze-up has been pretty rapid. Does that mean that it’s been unusually cold up there? I thought I’d take a look…
Tag: Antarctica
Freezing
With this summer’s Arctic sea ice minimum done and dusted, the first analyses of the season are beginning to appear. The NSIDC’s latest press release suggests that ice volume decline continued:
NSIDC Research Scientist Walt Meier said, “Warm ocean waters helped contribute to ice losses this year, pushing the already thin ice pack over the edge. In fact, preliminary data indicates that 2008 probably represents the lowest volume of Arctic sea ice on record, partly because less multiyear ice is surviving now, and the remaining ice is so thin.â€
Click on the thumbnail above to see the big picture on multi-year ice reduction. The large area of red first year ice will obviously become second year ice next year, but the continuing reduction in thicker, older ice sets the stage for further big losses the next time the Arctic has a warm summer. The European Space Agency confirms this, quoting US National Ice Centre Chief Scientist Dr Pablo Clemente-Colón:
Although last year’s summer sea ice minimum extent record was not broken, a record amount of the thickest multiyear sea ice was actually lost this season impacting the thickness of the sea ice presently found around the North Pole region and setting the stage for more minimum or near-minimum records in upcoming years.
The ESA also provide some nice images…
Here come de judge
How does an intelligent layman decide between the competing claims of the climate cranks (including Rodney Hide), and the position presented to us by scientific institutions and the IPCC? It’s easy to assume that there are “two sides” to the story, and that both should be heard. This is the idea that Avenues – a glossy freebie magazine in Christchurch – decided to use for a series of articles earlier this year. The editor, Jon Gadsby (who has since left), lined up NZ C”S”C veteran Gerrit van der Lingen to take the crank side, while Professor Bryan Storey, director of the University of Canterbury’s Gateway Antarctica programme took the IPPC position. In his introduction to one of the pieces Gadsby said:
This whole project is a major one, and something Avenues has not entered into lightly. We are though, if one side is to be believed, facing the single greatest threat to life in the history of humankind. If the other side is correct, we are in the midst of the single greatest, stage-managed deception in recorded history.
Nicely put, Jon. The final judgement appeared in the magazine’s August issue, provided by the recently retired High Court judge, Justice John Hansen. His summing up is interesting for the approach he took, even if his finding comes as no surprise.
The trumpet shall sound
A cracking issue (#93) of New Zealand Geographic has just hit the streets – a climate change special, complete with free map of both poles. Dave Hansford looks at impacts on NZ flora and fauna, Alan Knowles examines the energy alternatives being developed here, plus there’s a range of features from around the world – including an excellent article on climate change and winemaking. I’ve got a piece in there on the long-range forecast for NZ, but the knees are not mine. I’m biased by taking the NZGeo shilling, but even so the magazine is clearly an essential part of the intellectual landscape of this country and deserves support. Well worth $14.95 of anyone’s money.
Ice ice baby
The fat lady’s not yet in the building, but her limo’s outside the theatre. There’s another five or six weeks of melting to go, but there’s more than just sea ice melting in the Arctic, and more than my few meagre wagers riding on how summer turns out ‘oop North. Here’s a compendium of interesting recent stuff…