It’s not often you get discussion of ice cores over the breakfast muesli, but Kim Hill’s Saturday Morning show on Radio NZ National today featured a long chat with Lonnie Thompson, the renowned paleoclimatologist who has spent most of his career drilling into high altitude ice caps and glaciers to investigate past climate. The blurb to Mark Bowen’s book about Thompson claims that he “has spent more time in the death zone— the environment above eighteen thousand feet— than any man who has ever lived.” It’s a fascinating 30 – 40 minutes, well worth a listen for the insight he provides into the changes taking place in the cryosphere. Audio will be here later on today.
Category: Climate science
Smokestack lightning
Nature’s The Great Beyond blog draws my attention to the news that global carbon dioxide emissions are increasing at “an alarming rate” – hitting nearly 10 billion tonnes in 2007. The Global Carbon Project’s new report concludes:
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions have been growing about four times faster since 2000 than during the previous decade, and despite efforts to curb emissions in a number of countries which are signatories of the Kyoto Protocol. Emissions from the combustion of fossil fuel and land use change reached the mark of 10 billion tones of carbon in 2007. Natural CO2 sinks are growing, but more slowly than atmospheric CO2, which has been growing at 2 ppm per year since 2000. This is 33% faster than during the previous 20 years. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger climate forcing and sooner than expected.
Emissions are now running above even the most fossil fuel intensive of the IPCC’s scenarios (A1F1), driven by strong growth in China and India. Here’s the press release from the Oak Ridge lab, and there’s good analysis at Climate Progress. A PDF of the full presentation is available here[1.5MB].
More methane news: the Telegraph (UK) reports that a British survey vessel, the James Clark Ross, observed around 250 methane plumes in deep water over a 30 sq mile area west of Svalbard. It’s apparently thought that this system has been active since the end of the last ice age. The Independent also picks up the story, but doesn’t add much more information.
[Update 27/9: Nature provides a round up, apparently intent on debunking “alarmist predictions” of imminent hydrate release (grab it before it disappears behind a paywall), but the interesting bit comes at the end:
Globally, atmospheric methane concentrations increased by 7.5 parts per billion to nearly 1,800 parts per billion during 2007 after almost zero growth since 1999. The upward trend is likely to continue this year, says Ed Dlugokencky, who oversees the methane database run by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Boulder, Colorado. “Our data suggest increased emissions in the Arctic and the tropics,” he says. “Both regions were apparently warmer and wetter than average.”
Not much comfort there… [update: this link to the text may not expire]]
From Russia, with love
The work of the Swedish and Russian team on the Yakov Smirnitsky has finally found its way into the mainstream media, with Steve Connor at the Independent in London reporting the final post at the ISSS-08 blog I’ve been linking to for the last month or two. It’s not good news – they’ve found dramatic evidence of “methane chimneys” – bubbles of methane emerging form the sea floor and reaching the surface (instead of dissolving), and recorded atmospheric concentrations 100 times the normal background level. Connor reports on an email exchange with the Swedish team:
“We had a hectic finishing of the sampling programme yesterday and this past night,” said Dr Gustafsson. “An extensive area of intense methane release was found. At earlier sites we had found elevated levels of dissolved methane. Yesterday, for the first time, we documented a field where the release was so intense that the methane did not have time to dissolve into the seawater but was rising as methane bubbles to the sea surface. These ‘methane chimneys’ were documented on echo sounder and with seismic [instruments].”
At some locations, methane concentrations reached 100 times background levels. These anomalies have been seen in the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Sea, covering several tens of thousands of square kilometres, amounting to millions of tons of methane, said Dr Gustafsson. “This may be of the same magnitude as presently estimated from the global ocean,” he said. “Nobody knows how many more such areas exist on the extensive East Siberian continental shelves.
In his piece, Connor uses the “standard” global warming potential for methane of 20 times CO2 (actually 25 is the official IPCC number), and correctly notes the short atmospheric lifetime of the gas. However, over that short lifetime (around 12 years), CH4’s GWP is more like 70 times CO2. Current global methane level is about 1750 ppb (1.75 ppm), so using a GWP of 25 it has the same warming effect as 43.75 ppm CO2. On the shorter 10 year time scale, that’s more like 122 ppm CO2. But Semiletov and his team on the Yakov Smirnitsky have measured concentrations 100 times greater than “normal”, which implies a local warming effect equivalent to 12,200 ppm CO2.
Luckily, it’s getting dark up there, but methane release on that scale might slow down the winter cooling in the region of the chimneys. Methane seeps in lakes can keep holes open in winter ice, so if persistent holes start appearing in the satellite maps of sea ice over the Siberian seas, we’ll know there’s a big issue (the holes would have to be huge to be seen in the data). We urgently need more info on the extent of the problem. There’s a lot of methane under the Siberian seas – we can only hope it stays there.
The NZ Herald reprints the Independent story, and the Guardian puts its own spin on it (a note of caution). This is a story that needs wider coverage, more informed scientific debate, and great deal more study. I hope Connor’s piece doesn’t get dismissed as hype, or “alarmism”. You don’t need to be an alarmist to find this stuff alarming…
The green green grass of home
Back at my desk briefly (it’s a hectic week), some catching up in progress. The Going West panel session on Saturday morning was fun to do, and well received. There will be a recording available (for download, I hope) and I’ll link to that if/when it’s available. The climate change legal summit in Te Papa was a fascinating couple of days, with excellent speakers. Some of it was fairly dry stuff, as you might expect when considering the legal minutiae of carbon trading, and how the ETS might interact with the RMA process, but there were really useful sessions on dealing with greenwash, checking out the quality of offsets, the pitfalls of carbon trading, and so on. Highlights for me were Judge Shonagh Kenderdine on how climate change is being treated in the Environment Court (with special reference to sea level rise), Karen Price on the process (and contractual pitfalls) of carbon trading, and Professor Martin Manning on climate science and politics. Prof Manning had some interesting thoughts on targets – which luckily for me, reinforced the message I’d given in my morning introduction. There were also interesting and challenging presentations on agriculture and its future from Guy Salmon and Chris Ward (Hort NZ). All good stuff: would be great if it could find a wider audience, because this is where the real debate about climate change is – dealing with it, and moving forward.
I’m (possibly/probably) a loser
The National Snow & Ice Data Centre in the USA has declared that this year’s minimum Arctic sea ice extent has been reached – 4.52 million square kilometres on September 12th, only 390,000 km2 more than the record 2007 minimum (and 2.24 m km2 below the 1979-2000 average minimum). It looks as though their line may bump along the bottom of the graph for a while, so there may be some potential for that number to reduce a little. Their figure for Sept 12 is 9.4 percent above the 2007 minimum, so unless there’s some unprecedented melt over the next couple of weeks, I am prepared to accept that I have lost my bet with Malcolm (see comments here and at Poneke! here), which was based on NSIDC numbers. My cheque book is at the ready.