Author: Gareth

NIWA’s new climate projections coming soon

The Herald managed a sneak peek at NIWA’s latest round of climate projections last week:

Scientists expect New Zealand’s mean temperature will rise by an average 1.8C by the 2080s. By 2100, there will be up to 70 more days with temperatures over 30C, and frosty days will also drop, by five to 20 days in the North Island, and 10-30 days in the South Island. Snowlines will rise and westerly winds will be 20 per cent stronger. Severe droughts are likely to occur up to four times as often, but heavy rain will be more frequent.

Full results will not be available until September at the earliest, but I’m breathing a deep sigh of relief because the new study – based on the global climate modelling used in the IPCC’s Fourth Report – confirms earlier work, and that’s what I used in Hot Topic. Brett Mullen told the Herald:

“You don’t really want to have to reverse what you were saying before, but there certainly were some differences from what we saw in the first assessment. I think we’re on a firmer basis now.

The sun didn’t do it

SunThe last refuge of the climate sceptics is the claim that global warming is nothing to do with us: it’s the sun wot did it (to paraphrase a British tabloid). The claim has never held much water, but the final hole in the sceptics favourite bucket is a new paper examining claims of a solar driver for recent climate change. The BBC reports:

A new scientific study concludes that changes in the Sun’s output cannot be causing modern-day climate change. It shows that for the last 20 years, the Sun’s output has declined, yet temperatures on Earth have risen. It also shows that modern temperatures are not determined by the Sun’s effect on cosmic rays, as has been claimed.

The paper by Mike Lockwood from the UK’s Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory and Claus Froehlich from the World Radiation Center in Switzerland in the Royal Society’s journal Proceedings A, should put the “solar debate

NZ should be a global leader on climate change

The NZ Business Council for Sustainable Development‘s latest Shape survey [PDF] suggests that a clear majority – 63% – of New Zealanders think the country should be a global leader on climate change issues, with only 23% supporting moving at the same pace as other countries. Interestingly, support for Labour’s goal of carbon neutrality and National’s 50 by 50 policy is evenly split at 39% of respondents each. Plenty of room for a tussle for the climate vote at the next election.
NZ BCSD press releases here and here.

Coast to toast

GeocoverNew Zealand Geographic‘s new issue (#86, July-August) includes a taster of the sort of thing you’re going to get in Hot Topic: the book. I particularly like the graphics created to support my text: the header pic of New Zealand as cheese on toast is spectacular… This article focuses on the science and what it’s telling us. I’ll do a follow-up on how we might cope in due course.

Coming soon to a roof near you

Swift turbineVector is to start trialling rooftop wind turbines imported from Scotland. The Swift turbines, manufactured by Renewable Devices in Edinburgh, are rated at 1.5kW and quiet enough for urban use. The first trial site is the Waitakere City Council building (Waitakere has a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 85% by 2050). In NZ conditions, it’s expected that the Swifts will deliver between 2,000 and 3,000 kWh per year – around a quarter of the average household’s electricity usage. I wonder how the Swifts might cope with a North Canterbury nor’wester?