Comments on: When Gray turns to blue/Flung a dummy

By: Dave

Dave — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 02:48:06 +0000

Hi thanks for the info on Gray.
I’ve been researching some of his stuff myself and contacted one centre he quotes that states the Earth is cooling.
They said “Gray is noting more than a well read layman, our opinion is that the Earth is warming, but of course it depends on the time frame”
If Gray chooses the last 2 months, you may well see a cooling trend, but the last decade clearly shows warming.
I’ve appeared on Leighton SMith’s show a few times to argue with him, but as soon as it gets too difficult for him, he of course fades me out !
Back to Gray – one quote was that he was a self-appointed IPPC reviewer – can you shed any light on this ???
By the way I will be emailing Gray myself with my findings.

By: gareth

gareth — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 20:42:24 +0000

IJIS uses a third, different, algorithm to calculate extent. The NSIDC measure is of blocks of water with at least 15% sea ice. If the ice is widely scattered, the extent will be greater than if wind, for example, blows the floes together – bunching them up.

By: HarryTheHat

HarryTheHat — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 14:37:47 +0000

Gareth. Thanks for that, but IJIS is for extent. So why does NSIDC show only 89,000 sq km, and IJIS 780,000 sq km? I don’t understand. Looking at each of their data, they don’t match. It must be me, as I don’t see that this is being picked up anywhere on the web. NSIDC shows 7,710,000 for July 31, while IJIS shows 7,203,594.

By: gareth

gareth — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 10:34:09 +0000

Harry, NSIDC figures are for extent, CT’s for area. Different metrics, different calculations. Can’t compare them.

By: HarryTheHat

HarryTheHat — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 09:13:35 +0000

…Just found the data and the actual figure is 780,000 sq km more ice extent than last year – as of Aug 2. I wonder if NSIDC will give an explanation for both changing the graph, and posting incorrect info.

By: HarryTheHat

HarryTheHat — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 08:51:31 +0000

Something really odd going on at NSIDC. I don’t want to suggest that tampering is going on, but the graph had an actual upturn on it on Aug 1 (I have been checking it every day). I note today that the graph has been dramatically altered to show a sharp downturn. You can even observe the line break as the smoothness has gone. The text says that the extent over last year is only around 90,000 sq km. At the Cryosphere site however, the upturn is still shown, and by eye, the extent is almost a million sq km more than last year. What’s going on?

Update:
yes, something’s up with NSIDC. Data at IJIS shows indeed 1 million sq km

By: malcolm

malcolm — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 07:24:33 +0000

CobblyWorlds: Here is the URL.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seasonal/global/pdf/global_temp_2004.pdf

By: sorry

sorry — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 00:47:38 +0000

sorry.. deleted comment

By: HarryTheHat

HarryTheHat — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 19:02:09 +0000

Over on the ‘kick de bucket’ thread, Tortoise said:
“So, a question to everyone here except Harry. Has there been a statistically significant warming trend in the stratosphere since 1994? Has there been a statistically significant cooling trend in the stratosphere since 1978? Do your answers to these questions shed any light on what Harry is trying to claim?”

I’m disappointed (as must he be) that no one here has (ahem) tried to answer the questions posed by Tortoise. So I’ll put the point of the matter once more.

As it is well-known that a cornerstone of CO2-induced global warming is a cooling stratosphere, I state that the stratosphere simply isn’t cooling due to enhanced greenhouse effects.

If we look at the graph we see a very slight cooling from 1978 to 1981 (far too short a period to tell). Then we have a large step change after an eruption to 1984. Then we have a flat period from 1984 to another eruption. From there, is a large drop to 1993. However, since 1993 there is clearly no cooling in the stratosphere, in fact, a slight warming. It’s accepted that even the cooling we do see is the result of ozone depletion after volcanic eruptions (although we get immediate warming).

So, there has been no stratospheric cooling in 15 years. I therefore state that yet another cornerstone of CO2-induced warming has not happened, and thus shows it to be false.

http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/Stratosphere1278-1204.gif

As some people may not like the source of the graph (even though the data is identical!!!) then I also have the RSS graph

http://www.ssmi.com/pub/msu/graphics/plots/sc_Rss_compare_TS_channel_tls.png

The net decrease over that time period is about 1 degree C. However, the flattening periods, step changes, and lack of cooling since 1993 are quite evident.

By: HarryTheHat

HarryTheHat — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 21:15:03 +0000

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/07/31/a-encouraging-response-on-satellite-co2-measurement-from-the-airs-team/#comments

I had to go via Watts Up, as the direct PDF link won’t publish.