Comments on: Wade in the water http://hot-topic.co.nz/wade-in-the-water/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=wade-in-the-water Global warming and the future of New Zealand Thu, 24 May 2012 10:44:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: Doug Clover http://hot-topic.co.nz/wade-in-the-water/#comment-9597 Doug Clover Mon, 11 Jan 2010 22:15:04 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3812#comment-9597 What we are seeing here is the real scientific process. Scientists disagreeing over the use of different methods (note Lowe still thinks that there will be signficant sea level rise not just as much by 2100). If there is a global science conspiracy then they are doing a bad job for the cause. Also Stefan thinks that his method is valid would be very happy to be proven wrong. What we are seeing here is the real scientific process. Scientists disagreeing over the use of different methods (note Lowe still thinks that there will be signficant sea level rise not just as much by 2100).

If there is a global science conspiracy then they are doing a bad job for the cause.

Also Stefan thinks that his method is valid would be very happy to be proven wrong.

]]> By: samv http://hot-topic.co.nz/wade-in-the-water/#comment-9595 samv Mon, 11 Jan 2010 19:40:57 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3812#comment-9595 Lowe is also a champion of the point that any emissions reductions we do make, the system will be slow to respond to. If you take his position in that context you'll realise he's just saying that even if it doesn't happen in a huge way by 2100 it still matters. Lowe is also a champion of the point that any emissions reductions we do make, the system will be slow to respond to. If you take his position in that context you’ll realise he’s just saying that even if it doesn’t happen in a huge way by 2100 it still matters.

]]> By: Gareth http://hot-topic.co.nz/wade-in-the-water/#comment-9594 Gareth Mon, 11 Jan 2010 10:39:30 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3812#comment-9594 Steve, I'll see what I can do. Tim Naish has discussed sensitivity in the light of Andrill findings, but I haven't pinned him down in print yet. I'll try... but it might have to wait until the end of this Antarctic summer. Steve, I’ll see what I can do. Tim Naish has discussed sensitivity in the light of Andrill findings, but I haven’t pinned him down in print yet. I’ll try… but it might have to wait until the end of this Antarctic summer.

]]> By: Rob Taylor http://hot-topic.co.nz/wade-in-the-water/#comment-9591 Rob Taylor Mon, 11 Jan 2010 04:11:10 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3812#comment-9591 So, Steve the Human Sock Puppet returns! Have you got that data on sea levels in the Eemian yet? Thought not... So, Steve the Human Sock Puppet returns!
Have you got that data on sea levels in the Eemian yet?
Thought not…

]]> By: Steve Wrathall http://hot-topic.co.nz/wade-in-the-water/#comment-9590 Steve Wrathall Mon, 11 Jan 2010 03:33:49 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3812#comment-9590 11 Jan 10 update: Jason Lowe, a leading Met Office climate researcher, said: "These predictions of a rise in sea level potentially exceeding 6ft have got a huge amount of attention, but we think such a big rise by 2100 is actually incredibly unlikely. The mathematical approach used to calculate the rise is simplistic and unsatisfactory." http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6982299.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=6980618 Climategate has been a sea change. Now real climate scientists realise they have to safeguard their own careers by calling the catastrophists on their BS. 11 Jan 10 update:
Jason Lowe, a leading Met Office climate researcher, said: “These predictions of a rise in sea level potentially exceeding 6ft have got a huge amount of attention, but we think such a big rise by 2100 is actually incredibly unlikely. The mathematical approach used to calculate the rise is simplistic and unsatisfactory.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6982299.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=6980618

Climategate has been a sea change. Now real climate scientists realise they have to safeguard their own careers by calling the catastrophists on their BS.

]]> By: Steve Bloom http://hot-topic.co.nz/wade-in-the-water/#comment-9542 Steve Bloom Wed, 06 Jan 2010 16:28:13 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3812#comment-9542 I haven't read either since I'm waiting for free copies to appear, but James reminds me that the just-published <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n1/abs/ngeo706.html" rel="nofollow">Lunt et al</a>, like Robinson a PRISM paper, explicitly proposes an equilibrium sensitivity 30-50% higher than previously, and is backed up by <a href="http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n1/abs/ngeo724.html" rel="nofollow">Pagani et al</a> (not a PRISM paper, so presumably somewhat independent results albeit with similar methods) . Tripati promises finer-grained results soon, so we'll see what that narrow spike looks like then, plus at some point the model-derived implications for the near future. As I replied to James, then we may get to see if people really do care about their descendants. I haven’t read either since I’m waiting for free copies to appear, but James reminds me that the just-published Lunt et al, like Robinson a PRISM paper, explicitly proposes an equilibrium sensitivity 30-50% higher than previously, and is backed up by Pagani et al (not a PRISM paper, so presumably somewhat independent results albeit with similar methods) . Tripati promises finer-grained results soon, so we’ll see what that narrow spike looks like then, plus at some point the model-derived implications for the near future.

As I replied to James, then we may get to see if people really do care about their descendants.

]]> By: Steve Bloom http://hot-topic.co.nz/wade-in-the-water/#comment-9535 Steve Bloom Tue, 05 Jan 2010 23:06:35 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3812#comment-9535 I think it has implications way beyond the Arctic, although of course the issue that looms largest is what will happen to the stores of frozen carbon if there's a too-rapid transition to the climate state described by Robinson. It seems to me that these results should be getting a lot more attention, especially considering the Tripati et al finding that CO2 only briefly spiked up to about 350 ppm during the mid-Pliocene. Assuming that that brief time was still long enough for the climate to reach equiibrium, Robinson gives us a pretty good picture of SSTs and thus of the overall climate state at that time. Tripati et al focused more on the mid-Miocene since it was the last time CO2 spent an extended period of time in the present range (and very likely they didn't have Robinson's results), but in that case there are plausible arguments that the planet was sufficiently different (e.g. with the Central American seaway open) so as to make it an imperfect analogy for the present. Upon re-reading Tripati et al, I notice that they went out of their way to reject DeConto's model result that the ice sheets remain stable until much higher levels of CO2 are reached. Robinson also presents a firm challenge to the modelers since they now have a quantified target for heat transport from the tropics to the poles. If it's TCs, the North Atlantic in particular looks like a place one would want to avoid during the summer and fall. Last but not least, isn't there a strong argument for increased sensitivity here? (Actually I can ask JA and JH about this aspect.) I know all of this is way above both of our pay grades, so is there a chance you could get Tim Naish to comment on it? I think it has implications way beyond the Arctic, although of course the issue that looms largest is what will happen to the stores of frozen carbon if there’s a too-rapid transition to the climate state described by Robinson. It seems to me that these results should be getting a lot more attention, especially considering the Tripati et al finding that CO2 only briefly spiked up to about 350 ppm during the mid-Pliocene. Assuming that that brief time was still long enough for the climate to reach equiibrium, Robinson gives us a pretty good picture of SSTs and thus of the overall climate state at that time. Tripati et al focused more on the mid-Miocene since it was the last time CO2 spent an extended period of time in the present range (and very likely they didn’t have Robinson’s results), but in that case there are plausible arguments that the planet was sufficiently different (e.g. with the Central American seaway open) so as to make it an imperfect analogy for the present.

Upon re-reading Tripati et al, I notice that they went out of their way to reject DeConto’s model result that the ice sheets remain stable until much higher levels of CO2 are reached. Robinson also presents a firm challenge to the modelers since they now have a quantified target for heat transport from the tropics to the poles. If it’s TCs, the North Atlantic in particular looks like a place one would want to avoid during the summer and fall.

Last but not least, isn’t there a strong argument for increased sensitivity here? (Actually I can ask JA and JH about this aspect.)

I know all of this is way above both of our pay grades, so is there a chance you could get Tim Naish to comment on it?

]]> By: Dappledwater http://hot-topic.co.nz/wade-in-the-water/#comment-9533 Dappledwater Tue, 05 Jan 2010 10:42:32 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3812#comment-9533 "Guess I looked at this comment fragment by Dappledwater “The West Antarctic Peninsula has long been identified as an area of ice which could undergo rapid disintegration due to the fact that much of it’s base is below sea level” and thought he meant it. Sorry. Didn’t know that when you said these things it didn’t mean what it said. Apologies." - Terry. Nice try with apportioning blame Terry, but the confusion is all yours. Only a small portion of the West Antarctic ice sheet "floats" that being the glacier face that calves into the ocean. As Gareth and Samv have pointed out, much of it is grounded below sea level. Yes "some" of that ice won't affect sea level rise because of displacement, however the ice there is rather thick up to 2km above sea level - hence the scientific concern of it's contribution to sea level rise. A couple of images might help you: http://larvatusprodeo.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/new-scientist-13-600.jpg http://www.ig.utexas.edu/research/projects/wais/wais_cartoon.gif “Guess I looked at this comment fragment by Dappledwater “The West Antarctic Peninsula has long been identified as an area of ice which could undergo rapid disintegration due to the fact that much of it’s base is below sea level” and thought he meant it. Sorry. Didn’t know that when you said these things it didn’t mean what it said. Apologies.” – Terry.

Nice try with apportioning blame Terry, but the confusion is all yours.

Only a small portion of the West Antarctic ice sheet “floats” that being the glacier face that calves into the ocean. As Gareth and Samv have pointed out, much of it is grounded below sea level. Yes “some” of that ice won’t affect sea level rise because of displacement, however the ice there is rather thick up to 2km above sea level – hence the scientific concern of it’s contribution to sea level rise.

A couple of images might help you:

http://larvatusprodeo.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/new-scientist-13-600.jpg

http://www.ig.utexas.edu/research/projects/wais/wais_cartoon.gif

]]> By: Gareth http://hot-topic.co.nz/wade-in-the-water/#comment-9531 Gareth Tue, 05 Jan 2010 07:38:16 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3812#comment-9531 Terry, the West Antarctic ice sheet is grounded well below sea level. It is not floating, but it is very vulnerable to basal melt caused by warm sea water. We know that it has collapsed and reformed many times in the relatively recent past (see the posts linked above), but we don't have a good constraint on just how rapid those collapses can be. Terry, the West Antarctic ice sheet is grounded well below sea level. It is not floating, but it is very vulnerable to basal melt caused by warm sea water. We know that it has collapsed and reformed many times in the relatively recent past (see the posts linked above), but we don’t have a good constraint on just how rapid those collapses can be.

]]> By: Terry http://hot-topic.co.nz/wade-in-the-water/#comment-9529 Terry Tue, 05 Jan 2010 07:28:17 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3812#comment-9529 Guess I looked at this comment fragment by Dappledwater "The West Antarctic Peninsula has long been identified as an area of ice which could undergo rapid disintegration due to the fact that much of it’s base is below sea level" and thought he meant it. Sorry. Didn't know that when you said these things it didn't mean what it said. Apologies. Guess I looked at this comment fragment by Dappledwater “The West Antarctic Peninsula has long been identified as an area of ice which could undergo rapid disintegration due to the fact that much of it’s base is below sea level” and thought he meant it. Sorry. Didn’t know that when you said these things it didn’t mean what it said. Apologies.

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