Comments on: The Long Thaw http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-long-thaw/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-long-thaw Global warming and the future of New Zealand Thu, 24 May 2012 09:52:53 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: The Climate Crisis — Hot Topic http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-long-thaw/#comment-9724 The Climate Crisis — Hot Topic Mon, 18 Jan 2010 18:24:22 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=1167#comment-9724 [...] as is apparent in their new book The Climate Crisis: An Introductory Guide to Climate Change. My review of Archer’s previous book The Long Thaw  remarked on his ability to illuminate topics for the [...] [...] as is apparent in their new book The Climate Crisis: An Introductory Guide to Climate Change. My review of Archer’s previous book The Long Thaw  remarked on his ability to illuminate topics for the [...]

]]> By: Gareth http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-long-thaw/#comment-4515 Gareth Mon, 02 Feb 2009 23:05:17 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=1167#comment-4515 And I gave your review a plug in the comments to that post, Bryan (around #35, I think). Bringing your work to a wider audience! And I gave your review a plug in the comments to that post, Bryan (around #35, I think). Bringing your work to a wider audience!

]]> By: Bryan Walker http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-long-thaw/#comment-4514 Bryan Walker Mon, 02 Feb 2009 22:52:35 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=1167#comment-4514 David Archer has a new interesting post on Real Climate in which he develops his "long tail" of CO2 release in relation to Susan Solomon's recent paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences entitled Irreversible Climate Change because of Carbon Dioxide Emissions. He points our that Irreversible doesn't mean Unstopppable and emphasises that continuing with business-as-usual threatens far greater changes than we have so far initiated. The important thing is to stop while there is still some chance. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/02/irreversible-does-not-mean-unstoppable/#more-646 David Archer has a new interesting post on Real Climate in which he develops his “long tail” of CO2 release in relation to Susan Solomon’s recent paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences entitled Irreversible Climate Change because of Carbon Dioxide Emissions. He points our that Irreversible doesn’t mean Unstopppable and emphasises that continuing with business-as-usual threatens far greater changes than we have so far initiated. The important thing is to stop while there is still some chance.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/02/irreversible-does-not-mean-unstoppable/#more-646

]]> By: JCSpilman http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-long-thaw/#comment-4445 JCSpilman Mon, 26 Jan 2009 21:26:18 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=1167#comment-4445 Many thanks. Unfortunately there are too many irons in my fire to read everything suggested, and my interests are too diverse. About a year ago my wife and I were at a meeting with two folk with PhDs in Chemistry - a man and wife -- and I asked them during our conversation whether they could brief me quickly on the chemistry of Methane-Clatherates. Neither one of them had any idea as to what I was talking about! "Time proves all things." Bye. Many thanks. Unfortunately there are too many irons in my fire to read everything suggested, and my interests are too diverse. About a year ago my wife and I were at a meeting with two folk with PhDs in Chemistry – a man and wife — and I asked them during our conversation whether they could brief me quickly on the chemistry of Methane-Clatherates. Neither one of them had any idea as to what I was talking about!

“Time proves all things.” Bye.

]]> By: John Mashey http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-long-thaw/#comment-4442 John Mashey Mon, 26 Jan 2009 21:03:15 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=1167#comment-4442 This thread was supposed to be about The Long Thaw. JCSpilman: have you read that yet? or Archer's "Global Warming - Understanding the Forecast"? As it happens, Archer is a *world-class expert* not only on climate in general, but specifically in ocean processes and methane hydrates. Here's his <a href="http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/" rel="nofollow">web page</a>, and here are <a href="http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/reprints/" rel="nofollow">some publications</a>, which are easy enough to check via Google Scholar. PLEASE: read some good introductory books by real climate scientists. Look at the reviews for The Long Thaw [thanks Byran for adding one]. and consider spending $50 for the 3 books I mention, to start building a *coherent* knowledge base about this topic. If you want more, you might try reading <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2008/08/john_mashey_on_how_to_learn_ab.php" rel="nofollow">how to learn</a>, and especially looking at Spencer Weart's <a href="http://www.aip.org/history/climate/" rel="nofollow">Discovery of Global Warming</a>. This thread was supposed to be about The Long Thaw.

JCSpilman: have you read that yet?
or Archer’s “Global Warming – Understanding the Forecast”?

As it happens, Archer is a *world-class expert* not only on climate in general, but specifically in ocean processes and methane hydrates. Here’s his web page, and here are some publications, which are easy enough to check via Google Scholar.

PLEASE: read some good introductory books by real climate scientists.
Look at the reviews for The Long Thaw [thanks Byran for adding one]. and consider spending $50 for the 3 books I mention, to start building a *coherent* knowledge base about this topic.

If you want more, you might try reading how to learn, and especially looking at Spencer Weart’s Discovery of Global Warming.

]]> By: Gareth http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-long-thaw/#comment-4439 Gareth Mon, 26 Jan 2009 19:06:33 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=1167#comment-4439 Bryan -- I would like to add one additional reference to my earlier listing: (5) Natural Gas Hydrate Studies in Canada; Hyndman & Dallimore from The Recorder, 26,11-20, 2001, Canadian Society of Exploration Geophysicists. While not a recent document (it is seven years old) it does cover the basics of methane-hydrates with some outstanding charts and illustrations. In addition -- so that you will know the sort of individual, with which you are discussing this subject, please GOOGLE my unique penname JCSpilman to see what my other interests are. Last time I tried that I got about 16,000 hits, which seemed a bit much. By way of introduction - I am a Graduate of Purdue University, 1949, in Electrical Engineering and am a retired Rocket Scientist (whatever that means) in 1985. Current age is 83 and shooting for 100! My favorite quotation is from Jacob Perkins, ca 1785 "Time proves all things" JCSpilman a.k.a.Shamus12017 [Posted by GR for JCS - who sent this an email reply -- you need to post comments on this page at HT, JCS] Bryan –

I would like to add one additional reference to my earlier listing:

(5) Natural Gas Hydrate Studies in Canada; Hyndman & Dallimore from The Recorder, 26,11-20, 2001, Canadian Society of Exploration Geophysicists.

While not a recent document (it is seven years old) it does cover the basics of methane-hydrates with some outstanding charts and illustrations.

In addition — so that you will know the sort of individual, with which you are discussing this subject, please GOOGLE my unique penname JCSpilman to see what my other interests are. Last time I tried that I got about 16,000 hits, which seemed a bit much.

By way of introduction – I am a Graduate of Purdue University, 1949, in Electrical Engineering and am a retired Rocket Scientist (whatever that means) in 1985. Current age is 83 and shooting for 100!

My favorite quotation is from Jacob Perkins, ca 1785 “Time proves all things”

JCSpilman a.k.a.Shamus12017

[Posted by GR for JCS - who sent this an email reply -- you need to post comments on this page at HT, JCS]

]]> By: Bryan Walker http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-long-thaw/#comment-4434 Bryan Walker Sun, 25 Jan 2009 22:08:32 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=1167#comment-4434 JC Spilman: I did wonder whether you were perhaps referring to natural cycles when you spoke of it being too late to stop, but there was enough in your original comment to suggest that you took the anthropogenic contribution to warming as significant. None of the scientists who warn of the dangers of what we are doing by continuing to release CO2 from fossil fuel into the atmosphere seems to me unaware of the long cycles you refer to. But they see the global warming process we have set in motion as large enough to override any natural cycle we would otherwise face and its extremes as perhaps avoidable if we take appropriate mitigation measures now. Adapting will be part of what we have to do - always have to do - but it seems to me the case is well and truly made for trying to reduce CO2. David Archer refers at the end of his book to the release of fossil fuel CO2 as having "enormous world-altering potential" . In effect he considers we have taken over the reins of Earth's climate from the natural systems, and he ends with the hope that we'll use our new powers wisely. To me that means mitigation if we can summon the will to undertake it. JC Spilman:
I did wonder whether you were perhaps referring to natural cycles when you spoke of it being too late to stop, but there was enough in your original comment to suggest that you took the anthropogenic contribution to warming as significant. None of the scientists who warn of the dangers of what we are doing by continuing to release CO2 from fossil fuel into the atmosphere seems to me unaware of the long cycles you refer to. But they see the global warming process we have set in motion as large enough to override any natural cycle we would otherwise face and its extremes as perhaps avoidable if we take appropriate mitigation measures now. Adapting will be part of what we have to do – always have to do – but it seems to me the case is well and truly made for trying to reduce CO2. David Archer refers at the end of his book to the release of fossil fuel CO2 as having “enormous world-altering potential” . In effect he considers we have taken over the reins of Earth’s climate from the natural systems, and he ends with the hope that we’ll use our new powers wisely. To me that means mitigation if we can summon the will to undertake it.

]]> By: JCSpilman http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-long-thaw/#comment-4431 JCSpilman Sun, 25 Jan 2009 20:19:21 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=1167#comment-4431 TOO LATE TO STOP Mr. Walker -- Let me try different spin on my "Too late to stop comment" -- it appears to me that the tipping point on global warming and sea level rise took place about the time man was migrating across the Arctic Ice Shelf and into North America. The sea levels began to rise along with temperature, salinity, current flow and other factors and the ice started melting across the world. The ice sheaths across America began their pull back and glaciers around the world did likewise. Arctic and Anctartic ice shelves starting thinning and man prospered. The sea levels rose (they are still rising) and the biological processes among the methane producing bacteria reduced their production of methane, the cycle of "global warming" started its very slow reversal and is once again headed down into the next interglacial ice age. There is nothing we can do to stop the present cycle, nor should we want to do so, nor should we waste huge sums of money on ineffective attempts to "reduce CO2 in the atmosphere". Money is a tool to be used for good and must be applied to those areas that will permit mankind to adapt and survive the remainder of the heating cycle until we head back to the era of snowball earth. JCSpilman, P.E.; Huntsville, AL TOO LATE TO STOP
Mr. Walker –
Let me try different spin on my “Too late to stop comment” — it appears to me that the tipping point on global warming and sea level rise took place about the time man was migrating across the Arctic Ice Shelf and into North America. The sea levels began to rise along with temperature, salinity, current flow and other factors and the ice started melting across the world. The ice sheaths across America began their pull back and glaciers around the world did likewise. Arctic and Anctartic ice shelves starting thinning and man prospered.

The sea levels rose (they are still rising) and the biological processes among the methane producing bacteria reduced their production of methane, the cycle of “global warming” started its very slow reversal and is once again headed down into the next interglacial ice age.

There is nothing we can do to stop the present cycle, nor should we want to do so, nor should we waste huge sums of money on ineffective attempts to “reduce CO2 in the atmosphere”. Money is a tool to be used for good and must be applied to those areas that will permit mankind to adapt and survive the remainder of the heating cycle until we head back to the era of snowball earth.

JCSpilman, P.E.; Huntsville, AL

]]> By: Bryan Walker http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-long-thaw/#comment-4428 Bryan Walker Sun, 25 Jan 2009 05:52:00 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=1167#comment-4428 JC Spilman Thanks for your comments. The reference to the Fire in the Ice journal was useful - I was unaware of its existence. I watched an interesting lecture not so long ago given by Miriam Kastner of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography entitled Methane Hydrates: Natural Hazard of Natural Resource. It's available for free download from the iTunes store - a bit complicated to get to it, but if anyone's interested you choose iTunes U under genres, then Beyond Campus in the panel Find Education Providers, then UCTV, then Science in the Subjects panel, then the video tab if you want to see it, or audio if you prefer. The last time I looked it was no.5. Incidentally no.4, which precedes it, is a lecture by James Hansen. I can only hope you're wrong when say it's too late to stop , if you are referring to the anthropogenic warming. Certainly there seem to be latent effects which we can no longer prevent, but a serious drop in the level of emissions, combined with a variety of measures to capture and sequester CO2 from the atmosphere surely still offer some hope. Some recent posts in Hot Topic to illustrate: http://hot-topic.co.nz/ten-technologies-to-save-the-planet/ http://hot-topic.co.nz/carbonscape-and-the-charred-potato/ http://hot-topic.co.nz/fixing-climate/ None of the books I have read other than James Lovelock's are yet ready to delcare the battle lost, and even he occasionally allows a little snippet of hope. JC Spilman

Thanks for your comments. The reference to the Fire in the Ice journal was useful – I was unaware of its existence. I watched an interesting lecture not so long ago given by Miriam Kastner of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography entitled Methane Hydrates: Natural Hazard of Natural Resource. It’s available for free download from the iTunes store – a bit complicated to get to it, but if anyone’s interested you choose iTunes U under genres, then Beyond Campus in the panel Find Education Providers, then UCTV, then Science in the Subjects panel, then the video tab if you want to see it, or audio if you prefer. The last time I looked it was no.5. Incidentally no.4, which precedes it, is a lecture by James Hansen.

I can only hope you’re wrong when say it’s too late to stop , if you are referring to the anthropogenic warming. Certainly there seem to be latent effects which we can no longer prevent, but a serious drop in the level of emissions, combined with a variety of measures to capture and sequester CO2 from the atmosphere surely still offer some hope. Some recent posts in Hot Topic to illustrate:
http://hot-topic.co.nz/ten-technologies-to-save-the-planet/
http://hot-topic.co.nz/carbonscape-and-the-charred-potato/
http://hot-topic.co.nz/fixing-climate/
None of the books I have read other than James Lovelock’s are yet ready to delcare the battle lost, and even he occasionally allows a little snippet of hope.

]]> By: Bryan Walker http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-long-thaw/#comment-4424 Bryan Walker Sat, 24 Jan 2009 21:37:08 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=1167#comment-4424 John, I have done as you suggest. John, I have done as you suggest.

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