Comments on: The Listener joins the attack http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-listener-joins-the-attack/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-listener-joins-the-attack Global warming and the future of New Zealand Thu, 24 May 2012 09:47:23 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: C3P0 http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-listener-joins-the-attack/#comment-10781 C3P0 Wed, 24 Feb 2010 20:42:02 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4169#comment-10781 Sam, Rob said 100 years, so weent back exactly 100 years. That is not 'look[ing] back widely far enough'. There are plenty of worse floods I could find if I did that. My point is any given year in history has had extreme weather events occur somewhere in the world. Obviously not in the same location everytime. Sam, Rob said 100 years, so weent back exactly 100 years. That is not ‘look[ing] back widely far enough’.

There are plenty of worse floods I could find if I did that. My point is any given year in history has had extreme weather events occur somewhere in the world. Obviously not in the same location everytime.

]]> By: Bandersdad http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-listener-joins-the-attack/#comment-10780 Bandersdad Wed, 24 Feb 2010 19:52:40 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4169#comment-10780 A perfectly good analogy; and that's what happened to those who raised the alarm "early and often" and most of those that did not. Some however saw the big picture and moved; albeit most could not. Regardless we hope there was some learning involved. I think my point is, using the same analogy, thank those who built the UK's coastal radar whilst others spoke of both warnings and peace in our time. At the end of the day that's what saved the day. A perfectly good analogy; and that’s what happened to those who raised the alarm “early and often” and most of those that did not. Some however saw the big picture and moved; albeit most could not. Regardless we hope there was some learning involved.
I think my point is, using the same analogy, thank those who built the UK’s coastal radar whilst others spoke of both warnings and peace in our time. At the end of the day that’s what saved the day.

]]> By: samv http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-listener-joins-the-attack/#comment-10773 samv Wed, 24 Feb 2010 04:28:26 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4169#comment-10773 Well, to me the suggested inference is clear - that floods in Northernmost Western Europe in the past, that they serve as a precedent to the floods in an island off the coast of Africa. Hey, they're both officially Europe, right? There is little doubting that this is an unusual weather pattern. From <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Madeira_floods_and_mudslides" rel="nofollow">Wikipedia</a>: <blockquote cite="Wikipedia">These storms have been bolstered by an unusually strong temperature contrast of the sea surface across the Atlantic Ocean. Abnormally warm waters have been widespread off West Africa whereas relatively cold surface waters have stretched between western Europe and the southeastern United States.</blockquote> I think though if you compared the rate of rainfall between these two events that you could see that there is a large difference between them. But that's OK, if you look back and widely far enough, you can justify any conclusion. That seems to be the point of <a href="http://vilain.net/blog/2008/07/57-Wikipedia_Climate_Scien.html" rel="nofollow">Soon et al (2003)</a> Well, to me the suggested inference is clear – that floods in Northernmost Western Europe in the past, that they serve as a precedent to the floods in an island off the coast of Africa. Hey, they’re both officially Europe, right?

There is little doubting that this is an unusual weather pattern. From Wikipedia:

These storms have been bolstered by an unusually strong temperature contrast of the sea surface across the Atlantic Ocean. Abnormally warm waters have been widespread off West Africa whereas relatively cold surface waters have stretched between western Europe and the southeastern United States.

I think though if you compared the rate of rainfall between these two events that you could see that there is a large difference between them.

But that’s OK, if you look back and widely far enough, you can justify any conclusion. That seems to be the point of Soon et al (2003)

]]> By: Rob Taylor http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-listener-joins-the-attack/#comment-10772 Rob Taylor Wed, 24 Feb 2010 03:59:55 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4169#comment-10772 Maybe, but it could well be too late by then - not unlike waiting for Hitler to invade Poland, when you and your family are Polish Jews. Better to raise the alarm early and often, if the alternative is a one-way trip to the ovens. Maybe, but it could well be too late by then – not unlike waiting for Hitler to invade Poland, when you and your family are Polish Jews.

Better to raise the alarm early and often, if the alternative is a one-way trip to the ovens.

]]> By: Bryan Walker http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-listener-joins-the-attack/#comment-10771 Bryan Walker Wed, 24 Feb 2010 02:05:12 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4169#comment-10771 Sorry C3P0, I confess to being extremely limited where the technicalities are concerned, relying on Gareth for instructions when I move outside the narrow range of normal operation. What is the message of the picture, by the way? Sorry C3P0, I confess to being extremely limited where the technicalities are concerned, relying on Gareth for instructions when I move outside the narrow range of normal operation. What is the message of the picture, by the way?

]]> By: C3P0 http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-listener-joins-the-attack/#comment-10770 C3P0 Wed, 24 Feb 2010 01:53:24 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4169#comment-10770 I cant get the image poster to work, but.... http://historic-cities.huji.ac.il/france/paris/photos/flood/gare_invalides.jpg (Bryan, feel free to edit this to simply be a post of an image) I cant get the image poster to work, but….

http://historic-cities.huji.ac.il/france/paris/photos/flood/gare_invalides.jpg

(Bryan, feel free to edit this to simply be a post of an image)

]]> By: samv http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-listener-joins-the-attack/#comment-10766 samv Tue, 23 Feb 2010 21:48:37 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4169#comment-10766 <blockquote>I simply took your words literally</blockquote> You mean, you interpreted them in a particular way which you could then negate. That's called making a straw-man argument. But weather events in the Carribean or Ohio in 1910 are in no way a precedent to this event. Madeira's floods were "<a href="http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=50424" rel="nofollow">the worst floods to hit any part of Portugal in a century</a>". It's probably safe to say that the rainfall observed is unprecedented on that particular island in recorded history. Oh wait, what am I saying? Of course this event has a precedent. Why, just <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1247920/Tenerife-floods-Canary-Islands-hit-downpours.html" rel="nofollow">three weeks ago in 'nearby' Tenerife</a>. Well done for spotting the flaw C3P0! Contributing to the debate as always.

I simply took your words literally

You mean, you interpreted them in a particular way which you could then negate. That’s called making a straw-man argument. But weather events in the Carribean or Ohio in 1910 are in no way a precedent to this event.

Madeira’s floods were “the worst floods to hit any part of Portugal in a century“. It’s probably safe to say that the rainfall observed is unprecedented on that particular island in recorded history.

Oh wait, what am I saying? Of course this event has a precedent. Why, just three weeks ago in ‘nearby’ Tenerife. Well done for spotting the flaw C3P0! Contributing to the debate as always.

]]> By: Bandersdad http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-listener-joins-the-attack/#comment-10765 Bandersdad Tue, 23 Feb 2010 21:03:11 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4169#comment-10765 In answer to your more recent comment Rob (above) I'm increasingly of the view that we need to take a longer viewpoint on the issue. Yep the kids are playing with matches in the fireworks factory and yep it's unlikely to end well. Sometimes it happens; just as C3P0 says the weather does (thanks for that one - personally I tend to think "weather" exists in the "now" and thereby doesn't actually "happen" and therefore isn't at all inevitable). Haven't you already proven to your own satisfaction that telling them not to isn't stopping them? Shouldn't we be laying the groundwork for what happens after pendulum of opinion swings back? At some point there is going to be a catastrophic, probably AGW assisted, weather event that will make any IPCC report totally irrelevant. Thats when you teach the kids (remaining) not to play with matches. In answer to your more recent comment Rob (above) I’m increasingly of the view that we need to take a longer viewpoint on the issue. Yep the kids are playing with matches in the fireworks factory and yep it’s unlikely to end well.
Sometimes it happens; just as C3P0 says the weather does (thanks for that one – personally I tend to think “weather” exists in the “now” and thereby doesn’t actually “happen” and therefore isn’t at all inevitable).
Haven’t you already proven to your own satisfaction that telling them not to isn’t stopping them?
Shouldn’t we be laying the groundwork for what happens after pendulum of opinion swings back? At some point there is going to be a catastrophic, probably AGW assisted, weather event that will make any IPCC report totally irrelevant. Thats when you teach the kids (remaining) not to play with matches.

]]> By: Rob Taylor http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-listener-joins-the-attack/#comment-10764 Rob Taylor Tue, 23 Feb 2010 20:34:20 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4169#comment-10764 But human survival is not; we are behaving like children playing with a box of matches in a fireworks factory, and our descendants will have to live (or die) with the inevitable consequences. But human survival is not; we are behaving like children playing with a box of matches in a fireworks factory, and our descendants will have to live (or die) with the inevitable consequences.

]]> By: C3P0 http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-listener-joins-the-attack/#comment-10763 C3P0 Tue, 23 Feb 2010 20:13:58 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4169#comment-10763 Yes you are right, weather is unfortunately inevitable Yes you are right, weather is unfortunately inevitable

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