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	<title>Comments on: Take me to the river</title>
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	<description>Global warming and the future of New Zealand</description>
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		<title>By: Gareth</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/take-me-to-the-river/#comment-4345</link>
		<dc:creator>Gareth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Jan 2009 07:49:43 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Thanks Steve. Sounds complex to me!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks Steve. Sounds complex to me!</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Bloom</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/take-me-to-the-river/#comment-4343</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Bloom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Jan 2009 04:55:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://hot-topic.co.nz/take-me-to-the-river/#comment-4343</guid>
		<description>I looked through the abstracts and found this (referring to convective cloud feedback, one of those other hypotheses, noting that it addresses an issue that enhanced TC activity can&#039;t):

Cloud and moisture effects on warmth in continental interiors during equable climates

Dorian S. Abbot, Gabrielle Bousquet, Matthew Huber, Chris C. Walker
and Eli Tziperman

There is abundant evidence that during periods of equable climate in Earthâ€™s history, such as the Eocene, the interiors of continents at high latitudes were exceptionally warm during winter. Land has a low heat capacity and distances of thousands of kilometers separate some continental interior regions from the ocean. Consequently, significant increases in ocean temperatures do not necessarily imply that temperatures in continental interiors will increase enough to explain proxy data. As a result, explaining winter warmth deep in the interiors of continents remains a central outstanding problem of equable climate dynamics.

Here we present new evidence from global climate models (GCMs) that increases in cloud radiative forcing and the condensation of moisture (convergence of latent heat) over land may play central roles in warming continental interiors at high CO2 concentrations. We show results from both the NCAR CCSM coupled GCM run in Eocene configuration and the NCAR CAM atmospheric GCM run in modern configuration at various CO2 concentrations ranging up to 2240 ppm. The increases in cloud radiative forcing over land may be associated with a novel high-latitude convective cloud feedback that has recently been shown to produce significant warming over the ocean and help reduce sea ice cover at high CO2 levels, and the increased latent heat transport appears to be mainly zonal, rather than meridional.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I looked through the abstracts and found this (referring to convective cloud feedback, one of those other hypotheses, noting that it addresses an issue that enhanced TC activity can&#8217;t):</p>
<p>Cloud and moisture effects on warmth in continental interiors during equable climates</p>
<p>Dorian S. Abbot, Gabrielle Bousquet, Matthew Huber, Chris C. Walker<br />
and Eli Tziperman</p>
<p>There is abundant evidence that during periods of equable climate in Earthâ€™s history, such as the Eocene, the interiors of continents at high latitudes were exceptionally warm during winter. Land has a low heat capacity and distances of thousands of kilometers separate some continental interior regions from the ocean. Consequently, significant increases in ocean temperatures do not necessarily imply that temperatures in continental interiors will increase enough to explain proxy data. As a result, explaining winter warmth deep in the interiors of continents remains a central outstanding problem of equable climate dynamics.</p>
<p>Here we present new evidence from global climate models (GCMs) that increases in cloud radiative forcing and the condensation of moisture (convergence of latent heat) over land may play central roles in warming continental interiors at high CO2 concentrations. We show results from both the NCAR CCSM coupled GCM run in Eocene configuration and the NCAR CAM atmospheric GCM run in modern configuration at various CO2 concentrations ranging up to 2240 ppm. The increases in cloud radiative forcing over land may be associated with a novel high-latitude convective cloud feedback that has recently been shown to produce significant warming over the ocean and help reduce sea ice cover at high CO2 levels, and the increased latent heat transport appears to be mainly zonal, rather than meridional.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Bloom</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/take-me-to-the-river/#comment-4342</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Bloom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Jan 2009 03:52:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://hot-topic.co.nz/take-me-to-the-river/#comment-4342</guid>
		<description>Well, it turns out there are competing hypotheses, as many as three.  Life and nature being complicated, they don&#039;t look to be mutually exclusive.  Modeling them may pick a winner, though.  My metaphorical money&#039;s on KE.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, it turns out there are competing hypotheses, as many as three.  Life and nature being complicated, they don&#8217;t look to be mutually exclusive.  Modeling them may pick a winner, though.  My metaphorical money&#8217;s on KE.</p>
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		<title>By: Gareth</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/take-me-to-the-river/#comment-4335</link>
		<dc:creator>Gareth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Jan 2009 22:17:29 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Thanks for that Steve. The Emmanuel article is very interesting...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks for that Steve. The Emmanuel article is very interesting&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Bloom</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/take-me-to-the-river/#comment-4330</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Bloom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2009 08:08:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://hot-topic.co.nz/take-me-to-the-river/#comment-4330</guid>
		<description>The new results on tropical convective clouds are discussed &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.physorg.com/news148916785.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.

KE et al&#039;s recent paper on increased TC activity in equable climates is  &lt;a href=&quot;ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/korty_etal_2008.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.

&lt;a href=&quot;ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/Haurwitz_2008.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Here&lt;/a&gt; is a recent article by KE surveying the present state of the TC science.  Quoting:

&quot;As pointed out by Emanuel (2001), increased tropical cyclone activity in
a warmer climate would result in increased tropical heat export by the oceans, mitigating tropical warming but amplifying the warming of higher latitudes.  This inference is supported by recent numerical simulations using a coupled climate model in which upper ocean mixing is related to a proxy for tropical cyclone activity (Korty et al. 2008).  This effect offers a potential explanation for the equable nature of very warm climates, such as that of the early Eocene; high levels of tropical cyclone activity in such warm climates could drive a strong poleward heat flux in the ocean, even in the face of relatively weak pole-to-equator temperature gradients, thus helping to keep such gradients weak.  (Todayâ€™s coupled climate models are notoriously bad at reproducing such weak temperature gradients, perhaps because they have no representation of tropical cycloneâ€“induced ocean mixing.)  It may also help explain why most of the observed heat uptake by the oceans over the past 50 yr has been in the subtropics and middle latitudes (Levitus et al. 2005), whereas coupled models typically show most of the heat uptake occurring in subpolar regions (e.g. Manabe et al. 1991).&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The new results on tropical convective clouds are discussed <a href="http://www.physorg.com/news148916785.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>.</p>
<p>KE et al&#8217;s recent paper on increased TC activity in equable climates is  <a href="ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/korty_etal_2008.pdf" rel="nofollow">here</a>.</p>
<p><a href="ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/Haurwitz_2008.pdf" rel="nofollow">Here</a> is a recent article by KE surveying the present state of the TC science.  Quoting:</p>
<p>&#8220;As pointed out by Emanuel (2001), increased tropical cyclone activity in<br />
a warmer climate would result in increased tropical heat export by the oceans, mitigating tropical warming but amplifying the warming of higher latitudes.  This inference is supported by recent numerical simulations using a coupled climate model in which upper ocean mixing is related to a proxy for tropical cyclone activity (Korty et al. 2008).  This effect offers a potential explanation for the equable nature of very warm climates, such as that of the early Eocene; high levels of tropical cyclone activity in such warm climates could drive a strong poleward heat flux in the ocean, even in the face of relatively weak pole-to-equator temperature gradients, thus helping to keep such gradients weak.  (Todayâ€™s coupled climate models are notoriously bad at reproducing such weak temperature gradients, perhaps because they have no representation of tropical cycloneâ€“induced ocean mixing.)  It may also help explain why most of the observed heat uptake by the oceans over the past 50 yr has been in the subtropics and middle latitudes (Levitus et al. 2005), whereas coupled models typically show most of the heat uptake occurring in subpolar regions (e.g. Manabe et al. 1991).&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Bryan Walker</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/take-me-to-the-river/#comment-4329</link>
		<dc:creator>Bryan Walker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2009 01:41:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://hot-topic.co.nz/take-me-to-the-river/#comment-4329</guid>
		<description>The article in the New Scientist which you link to above is, I&#039;m happy to report, not behind a paywall as you feared.  It&#039;s certainly a good read.

[Thanks Bryan. I&#039;m a subscriber, so it&#039;s sometimes hard to tell when things are not behind a paywall. GR]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The article in the New Scientist which you link to above is, I&#8217;m happy to report, not behind a paywall as you feared.  It&#8217;s certainly a good read.</p>
<p>[Thanks Bryan. I'm a subscriber, so it's sometimes hard to tell when things are not behind a paywall. GR]</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Bloom</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/take-me-to-the-river/#comment-4328</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Bloom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2009 23:09:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://hot-topic.co.nz/take-me-to-the-river/#comment-4328</guid>
		<description>Kerry Emanuel proposed a few years ago that the solution to the too-hot-paleo-tropics problem was increased tropical cyclone activity.  He and others (notably Matt Huber) have done considerable work on this, but the lack of any sort of proxy for such activity leaves things a little open-ended (although to my knowledge no other mechanism has been proposed).  Modeling work on this hypothesis continues, but the obvious point is that we should expect to see evidence of something like this kicking in as the planet heats up.  Whether we should be seeing it this soon is also an open question, but do the fresh results showing increasing tropical convective cloud activity fill the bill?  (Sorry, no links for the moment since I&#039;m in a hurry.) 

(Something strange seems to be happening to your formatting, BTW.  The text in the comment box got smaller  and there are run-together lines toward the bottom of the post.  This is with IE.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kerry Emanuel proposed a few years ago that the solution to the too-hot-paleo-tropics problem was increased tropical cyclone activity.  He and others (notably Matt Huber) have done considerable work on this, but the lack of any sort of proxy for such activity leaves things a little open-ended (although to my knowledge no other mechanism has been proposed).  Modeling work on this hypothesis continues, but the obvious point is that we should expect to see evidence of something like this kicking in as the planet heats up.  Whether we should be seeing it this soon is also an open question, but do the fresh results showing increasing tropical convective cloud activity fill the bill?  (Sorry, no links for the moment since I&#8217;m in a hurry.) </p>
<p>(Something strange seems to be happening to your formatting, BTW.  The text in the comment box got smaller  and there are run-together lines toward the bottom of the post.  This is with IE.)</p>
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