Bear in mind that the anomaly is the difference from average. Even without what’s going on now you’ll have odd times when there are dips/peaks from average because just as no 2 years are identical, no year would follow the average.

As for what’s going to happen, I give up. My latest prediction has been shown wrong, the gap between this year and last year’s areas is now dropping below half what I said would be the likely difference at minima. Previous minima have been between 27 Aug and 15 Sept, that’s 2 to 4 weeks to go.

I’m tempted to go do something completely different until 1 September.

If I can just drag myself away.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg

Past history shows many cases of sudden ‘melt’ and sudden recovery, presumably due to wind, measurement, or god knows what. At this stage, we could be in just such a similar temporary dip (which actually occur at all times of the year in the historical record), or it could be a more sustained low plateau for a few weeks. Or even the presage of a further melt.

If it’s just brief dip, I think the fat lady will have been satisfied by the mini-bar in the limo. If it’s a sustained low plateau, or further substantial melt, I’ll be inclined to think that she’s gone to back to her hotel for the Surf n Turf, followed by a Bombe Alaska.

And I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss Maslowski’s work. His prediction might be an outlier, but it sets a lower bound on plausible cases. And his case is nothing if not plausible (see CW’s earlier link).

He has confirmed, however, that McKie’s comments are not based on a new paper. He has one coming out later this year…

Perhaps you could blog on it.

Quick google… Ahhh, I see you have! Heavy on incredulity, sparse on reasoning though…

I’ll reply over at Stoat.

The 2013 stuff is nonsense.

When will Summer Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Sustainability Weeks 2008 – Symposium on Drastic Change in the Earth System during Global Warming. Sapporo, Japan, 24 June 2008

Between 1997-2004… ice volume decreased by 40%, which is >2x the rate of ice area decrease.

If this trend persists the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free by ~2013!

Next March’s stats on perennial ice extent from Nghiem and any and all data re first-year ice thickness are now crucial.

“A linear increase in heat in the Arctic Ocean will result in a nonlinear, and accelerating, loss of sea ice.”

Norbert Untersteiner, Professor Emeritus, University of Washington, July 2006

I’m going for a walk along Blackpool’s promenade, in the autumnal wind and rain.