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	<title>Comments on: More than a number</title>
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	<description>Global warming and the future of New Zealand</description>
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		<title>By: The Drifters - More Than A Number In My Little Red Book &#124; FrontPageSearch</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/more-than-a-number/comment-page-1/#comment-26746</link>
		<dc:creator>The Drifters - More Than A Number In My Little Red Book &#124; FrontPageSearch</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jul 2011 22:25:01 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>[...] http://hot-topic.co.nz/more-than-a-number/ [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] <a href="http://hot-topic.co.nz/more-than-a-number/" rel="nofollow">http://hot-topic.co.nz/more-than-a-number/</a> [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Dappledwater</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/more-than-a-number/comment-page-1/#comment-9183</link>
		<dc:creator>Dappledwater</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Dec 2009 03:55:50 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>More likely the situation in the Antarctic is a tad more complicated. Increased sea ice extent was a prediction of the climate models deniers hate so much (deniers believing wild guesswork is preferable). Only a transitional stage though, the continued warming will mean eventual decreases in Antarctic sea ice.  

A recent (ish) paper on the topic:

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/Pubs/Zhang_Antarctic_20-11-2515.pdf

&quot;Estimates of sea ice extent based on satellite observations show an increasing Antarctic sea ice cover from 1979 to 2004 even though in situ observations show a prevailing warming trend in both the atmosphere and the ocean. This riddle is explored here using a global multicategory thickness and enthalpy distribution sea ice model coupled to an ocean model. &quot;

&quot; The model shows that an increase in surface air temperature and downward longwave radiation results in an increase in the upper-ocean temperature and a decrease in sea ice growth, leading to a decrease in salt rejection from ice, in the upper-ocean salinity, and in the upper-ocean density. The reduced salt rejection and upper-ocean density and the enhanced thermohaline stratification tend to suppress convective overturning, leading to a decrease in the upward ocean heat transport and the ocean heat flux available to melt sea ice. The ice melting from ocean heat flux decreases faster than the ice growth does in the weakly stratified Southern Ocean, leading to an increase in the net ice production and hence an increase in ice mass. This mechanism is the main reason why the Antarctic sea ice has increased in spite of warming conditions both above and below during the period
1979â€“2004 and the extended period 1948â€“2004.&quot;

Don&#039;t worry R2, additionally the  Ozone Hole over Antarctica will eventually close and then things will really warm up down there. Should be able to add Antarctic sea ice  to the Climate Change Index eventually.

http://en.mercopress.com/2009/12/04/ozone</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>More likely the situation in the Antarctic is a tad more complicated. Increased sea ice extent was a prediction of the climate models deniers hate so much (deniers believing wild guesswork is preferable). Only a transitional stage though, the continued warming will mean eventual decreases in Antarctic sea ice.  </p>
<p>A recent (ish) paper on the topic:</p>
<p><a href="http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/Pubs/Zhang_Antarctic_20-11-2515.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/Pubs/Zhang_Antarctic_20-11-2515.pdf</a></p>
<p>&#8220;Estimates of sea ice extent based on satellite observations show an increasing Antarctic sea ice cover from 1979 to 2004 even though in situ observations show a prevailing warming trend in both the atmosphere and the ocean. This riddle is explored here using a global multicategory thickness and enthalpy distribution sea ice model coupled to an ocean model. &#8221;</p>
<p>&#8221; The model shows that an increase in surface air temperature and downward longwave radiation results in an increase in the upper-ocean temperature and a decrease in sea ice growth, leading to a decrease in salt rejection from ice, in the upper-ocean salinity, and in the upper-ocean density. The reduced salt rejection and upper-ocean density and the enhanced thermohaline stratification tend to suppress convective overturning, leading to a decrease in the upward ocean heat transport and the ocean heat flux available to melt sea ice. The ice melting from ocean heat flux decreases faster than the ice growth does in the weakly stratified Southern Ocean, leading to an increase in the net ice production and hence an increase in ice mass. This mechanism is the main reason why the Antarctic sea ice has increased in spite of warming conditions both above and below during the period<br />
1979â€“2004 and the extended period 1948â€“2004.&#8221;</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t worry R2, additionally the  Ozone Hole over Antarctica will eventually close and then things will really warm up down there. Should be able to add Antarctic sea ice  to the Climate Change Index eventually.</p>
<p><a href="http://en.mercopress.com/2009/12/04/ozone" rel="nofollow">http://en.mercopress.com/2009/12/04/ozone</a></p>
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		<title>By: R2D2</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/more-than-a-number/comment-page-1/#comment-9182</link>
		<dc:creator>R2D2</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Dec 2009 02:19:53 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>No I think he was just pointing out blatant cherry picking.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No I think he was just pointing out blatant cherry picking.</p>
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		<title>By: nommopilot</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/more-than-a-number/comment-page-1/#comment-9181</link>
		<dc:creator>nommopilot</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Dec 2009 01:57:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3730#comment-9181</guid>
		<description>&quot;what I call the small minded problem&quot;

as demonstrated by our lovely assistant Steve Wrathall...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;what I call the small minded problem&#8221;</p>
<p>as demonstrated by our lovely assistant Steve Wrathall&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Doug Clover</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/more-than-a-number/comment-page-1/#comment-9159</link>
		<dc:creator>Doug Clover</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:55:54 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>It would be good to include antarctic sea ice although the net increase has been small and should not effect the overall results of this index. 

However, this type of index despite its faults (all indices have aggregation problems) does have the advantage of taking a global prespective on a global problem, helping to ovecome what I call the small minded problem. 

To paraphrase &#039;it was cool where I live yesterday so climate change isn&#039;t happening&#039; or &#039;I will ignore global trends and focus on one glacier, one temperature record, or one region to the exclusion of the everything else&#039;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It would be good to include antarctic sea ice although the net increase has been small and should not effect the overall results of this index. </p>
<p>However, this type of index despite its faults (all indices have aggregation problems) does have the advantage of taking a global prespective on a global problem, helping to ovecome what I call the small minded problem. </p>
<p>To paraphrase &#8216;it was cool where I live yesterday so climate change isn&#8217;t happening&#8217; or &#8216;I will ignore global trends and focus on one glacier, one temperature record, or one region to the exclusion of the everything else&#8217;.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Wrathall</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/more-than-a-number/comment-page-1/#comment-9157</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Wrathall</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:22:29 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Why not Antarctic sea ice? Guess they need to hide that non-decline.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Why not Antarctic sea ice? Guess they need to hide that non-decline.</p>
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