Comments on: Lester Brown: US falling out of love with cars http://hot-topic.co.nz/lester-brown-us-falling-out-of-love-with-cars/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=lester-brown-us-falling-out-of-love-with-cars Global warming and the future of New Zealand Wed, 23 May 2012 07:02:37 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: Terry http://hot-topic.co.nz/lester-brown-us-falling-out-of-love-with-cars/#comment-9620 Terry Wed, 13 Jan 2010 04:20:55 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3859#comment-9620 You want to be careful about using Washington DC as an example of anything until you have looked at the demographics and perhaps had the opportunity to actually go there. There are portions that are lovely and those that resemble the devastation in the wake of WWII. And there is the issue of cabs, which are cheap and plentiful, but parking is expensive. The DC issue is the residents don't need them (high officials and prosperous lobbyists) and the rest can't afford them, but the employees and tourists use them but aren't residents. It's a weird demographic, and not one I'd use to prove or disprove anything. Ford reported today that sales of their largest SUV models increased around 40%. At some point you reach saturation. And sometimes statistics are misinterpreted. If one compares total vehicle registrations to to total driver licenses, you will include all commercial and many industrial and all personal vehicles, but have a limited pool of drivers. If you compare only automotive (passenger cars and light trucks) vehicles to licensed drivers you get a different answer. And it may not be possible to differentiate between a passenger car and motorhome in the statistics. Just saying this area needs to be approached with caution. The young driver trend you reference is a bit mysterious. They are everywhere. Of course, nothing prevents them from driving without a license and many do. Anyway, just wanted to point out the pitfalls of some statistics. The man will be right at some point, but I'm not sure this is the point. You want to be careful about using Washington DC as an example of anything until you have looked at the demographics and perhaps had the opportunity to actually go there. There are portions that are lovely and those that resemble the devastation in the wake of WWII. And there is the issue of cabs, which are cheap and plentiful, but parking is expensive. The DC issue is the residents don’t need them (high officials and prosperous lobbyists) and the rest can’t afford them, but the employees and tourists use them but aren’t residents. It’s a weird demographic, and not one I’d use to prove or disprove anything.

Ford reported today that sales of their largest SUV models increased around 40%.

At some point you reach saturation. And sometimes statistics are misinterpreted. If one compares total vehicle registrations to to total driver licenses, you will include all commercial and many industrial and all personal vehicles, but have a limited pool of drivers. If you compare only automotive (passenger cars and light trucks) vehicles to licensed drivers you get a different answer. And it may not be possible to differentiate between a passenger car and motorhome in the statistics. Just saying this area needs to be approached with caution.

The young driver trend you reference is a bit mysterious. They are everywhere. Of course, nothing prevents them from driving without a license and many do.

Anyway, just wanted to point out the pitfalls of some statistics. The man will be right at some point, but I’m not sure this is the point.

]]> By: Rob Taylor http://hot-topic.co.nz/lester-brown-us-falling-out-of-love-with-cars/#comment-9555 Rob Taylor Fri, 08 Jan 2010 02:07:46 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3859#comment-9555 Welcome back to Steve Wrathall, our favourite mindless troll, who flees back to Denial Lalaland whenever the questions get too hard. What do you have for our entertainment today, Steve? Welcome back to Steve Wrathall, our favourite mindless troll, who flees back to Denial Lalaland whenever the questions get too hard.

What do you have for our entertainment today, Steve?

]]> By: Steve Wrathall http://hot-topic.co.nz/lester-brown-us-falling-out-of-love-with-cars/#comment-9554 Steve Wrathall Fri, 08 Jan 2010 01:55:33 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3859#comment-9554 Not nearly as fast as they're falling out of love with global warming catastrophism. http://www.hopenhagen.org/blogEntry/144562 Not nearly as fast as they’re falling out of love with global warming catastrophism.
http://www.hopenhagen.org/blogEntry/144562

]]> By: Bruce Hamilton http://hot-topic.co.nz/lester-brown-us-falling-out-of-love-with-cars/#comment-9550 Bruce Hamilton Thu, 07 Jan 2010 09:48:34 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3859#comment-9550 If the decreased ownership was attributed to increased fuel costs, the urban users would move to very small cars, but that hasn't happened to the extent regulators expected in the USA. I don't think fuel costs contribute much to the change. Most automakers ( including Asian ) were not targetting the static USA auto market for their growth ( other than via market share ) anyway. BRIC and developing nations have been seen as the only fast growth markets for the last 5 years or so. The USA "cash for clunkers" scheme obviously helped new car sales earlier this year, but the 2009 last quarter sales of GM and Chrysler are dropping again. Interestingly, because of the love affair with cars, some owners didn't want to see their "old faithful " destroyed, so didn't participate. The trade-in rules required that the engine fluids were drained, and an abrasive mixture fed into the running engine until it stalled and died. Similar harm was visited on other parts of the car. Perversely, the large number of sales of "fuel efficient" vehicles has enabled the car companies to promote gas guzzlers because they are well within their CAFE targets, and the companies make more money on individual larger cars. There is also significant % of residual cussedness in the USA population that also applies in buying of larger vehicles, as well as the perceived safety advantages. The issue of small cars sharing roads with large commercial vehicles also arises, especially as gory accidents are often in the news. I suspect the decreased young driver trend is not so much about not wishing to drive, but more about having other high status items ( iphone, gaming computers, etc ) available to spend discretionary money on. That's going to be a global change, and young people can more easily share cars than many families. They are also global travellers, and have seen and used effective public transport systems. Also, the total cost of owning a car has continued to increase . Currently estimated at around $7,000, in the USA, including insurance = $2000+, parking, emission testing, state taxes, which can be based on the market value of vehicle, etc.. I think the car ownership aspiration is still there, but many of the city dwellers can't afford to own a car each, and have better uses for their money. I expect to see improved public transport in the USA as car-less crowds patronise services. If the decreased ownership was attributed to increased fuel costs, the urban users would move to very small cars, but that hasn’t happened to the extent regulators expected in the USA. I don’t think fuel costs contribute much to the change.

Most automakers ( including Asian ) were not targetting the static USA auto market for their growth ( other than via market share ) anyway. BRIC and developing nations have been seen as the only fast growth markets for the last 5 years or so.

The USA “cash for clunkers” scheme obviously helped new car sales earlier this year, but the 2009 last quarter sales of GM and Chrysler are dropping again.

Interestingly, because of the love affair with cars, some owners didn’t want to see their “old faithful ” destroyed, so didn’t participate. The trade-in rules required that the engine fluids were drained, and an abrasive mixture fed into the running engine until it stalled and died. Similar harm was visited on other parts of the car.

Perversely, the large number of sales of “fuel efficient” vehicles has enabled the car companies to promote gas guzzlers because they are well within their CAFE targets, and the companies make more money on individual larger cars.

There is also significant % of residual cussedness in the USA population that also applies in buying of larger vehicles, as well as the perceived safety advantages. The issue of small cars sharing roads with large commercial vehicles also arises, especially as gory accidents are often in the news.

I suspect the decreased young driver trend is not so much about not wishing to drive, but more about having other high status items ( iphone, gaming computers, etc ) available to spend discretionary money on. That’s going to be a global change, and young people can more easily share cars than many families. They are also global travellers, and have seen and used effective public transport systems.

Also, the total cost of owning a car has continued to increase . Currently estimated at around $7,000, in the USA, including insurance = $2000+, parking, emission testing, state taxes, which can be based on the market value of vehicle, etc..

I think the car ownership aspiration is still there, but many of the city dwellers can’t afford to own a car each, and have better uses for their money. I expect to see improved public transport in the USA as car-less crowds patronise services.

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