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	<title>Comments on: Greenland ice melt spreads northwest</title>
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	<description>Global warming and the future of New Zealand</description>
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		<title>By: It&#8217;s grim up North (but beautiful too) â€” Hot Topic</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/greenland-ice-melt-spreads-northwest/#comment-11652</link>
		<dc:creator>It&#8217;s grim up North (but beautiful too) â€” Hot Topic</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Mar 2010 04:51:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4489#comment-11652</guid>
		<description>[...] things found on the internet. Yesterday was a day when I rediscovered that tradition. Prompted by a comment from glaciologist Mauri Pelto on my recent Greenland post, I started off by making a visit to [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] things found on the internet. Yesterday was a day when I rediscovered that tradition. Prompted by a comment from glaciologist Mauri Pelto on my recent Greenland post, I started off by making a visit to [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Gareth</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/greenland-ice-melt-spreads-northwest/#comment-11651</link>
		<dc:creator>Gareth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Mar 2010 02:40:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4489#comment-11651</guid>
		<description>The Eemian lasted about 15,000 years, and yes of course it was a response to the balance of all climate influences at the time. The difference now is that those drivers include anthropogenic interventions -- aerosols, GHGs, land use change etc -- and that the majority of those have only had a limited time to have an impact. 
 
Different parts of the climate system have different characteristic timescales. The most important near term is the response of the top layers of the ocean, which is usually said to be about 30 years -- that&#039;s the &quot;lag&quot; in the system. Ice sheets take longer to reach equilibrium with  a changed climate -- hundreds, perhaps thousands of years -- but may still exhibit rapid responses in shorter periods (see the link I provided above). 
 
One major difficulty in projecting the full impact of current GHG levels is that we&#039;re offsetting their impact with aerosol pollution. If we clean up the atmosphere, we could increase the warming. Google Ramanathan &amp; Feng, they have an important paper on the subject. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Eemian lasted about 15,000 years, and yes of course it was a response to the balance of all climate influences at the time. The difference now is that those drivers include anthropogenic interventions &#8212; aerosols, GHGs, land use change etc &#8212; and that the majority of those have only had a limited time to have an impact. </p>
<p>Different parts of the climate system have different characteristic timescales. The most important near term is the response of the top layers of the ocean, which is usually said to be about 30 years &#8212; that&#039;s the &quot;lag&quot; in the system. Ice sheets take longer to reach equilibrium with  a changed climate &#8212; hundreds, perhaps thousands of years &#8212; but may still exhibit rapid responses in shorter periods (see the link I provided above). </p>
<p>One major difficulty in projecting the full impact of current GHG levels is that we&#039;re offsetting their impact with aerosol pollution. If we clean up the atmosphere, we could increase the warming. Google Ramanathan &amp; Feng, they have an important paper on the subject. </p>
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		<title>By: C3P0</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/greenland-ice-melt-spreads-northwest/#comment-11650</link>
		<dc:creator>C3P0</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Mar 2010 01:54:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4489#comment-11650</guid>
		<description>&quot;Lots of things other than CO2 influence the climate system, but the point with the Eemian is that it demonstrates that the equilibrium response to 300 ppm is a lot of ice sheet melt and sea level rise&quot; 
 
How long was the Eemian in equilibrium for? 
 
You state that other things can effect climate but then you say that the Eemian demonstates an equilibrium response to 300ppb CO2. If your first statement is correct the Eemian demonstrates a response to all the factors that existed at the time - not just the level of CO2.  
 
Anyway... so the Eemian was 1-2C warmer than today and CO2 was 300 ppm, so how long until that catches up with us? Given CO2 was last at 300 ppm when? World war 2? If 300 ppm was going to cause 1-2C warming how long do we have to wait? </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&quot;Lots of things other than CO2 influence the climate system, but the point with the Eemian is that it demonstrates that the equilibrium response to 300 ppm is a lot of ice sheet melt and sea level rise&quot; </p>
<p>How long was the Eemian in equilibrium for? </p>
<p>You state that other things can effect climate but then you say that the Eemian demonstates an equilibrium response to 300ppb CO2. If your first statement is correct the Eemian demonstrates a response to all the factors that existed at the time &#8211; not just the level of CO2.  </p>
<p>Anyway&#8230; so the Eemian was 1-2C warmer than today and CO2 was 300 ppm, so how long until that catches up with us? Given CO2 was last at 300 ppm when? World war 2? If 300 ppm was going to cause 1-2C warming how long do we have to wait? </p>
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		<title>By: Gareth</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/greenland-ice-melt-spreads-northwest/#comment-11647</link>
		<dc:creator>Gareth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Mar 2010 23:10:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4489#comment-11647</guid>
		<description>Lot&#039;s of things other than CO2 influence the climate system, but the point with the Eemian is that it demonstrates that the &lt;em&gt;equilibrium response&lt;/em&gt; to 300 ppm is a lot of ice sheet melt and sea level rise. We&#039;re already at 389 ppm, with some of the impact reduced by aerosol masking, and a lot of catching up to do. How fast that might happen is a very interesting question, particularly as there are &lt;a href=&quot;http:\/\/hot-topic.co.nz\/a-coral-room\/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;tantalising hints&lt;/a&gt; of rapid surges in sea level during the warm parts of the Eemian. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Lot&#039;s of things other than CO2 influence the climate system, but the point with the Eemian is that it demonstrates that the <em>equilibrium response</em> to 300 ppm is a lot of ice sheet melt and sea level rise. We&#039;re already at 389 ppm, with some of the impact reduced by aerosol masking, and a lot of catching up to do. How fast that might happen is a very interesting question, particularly as there are <a href="http:\/\/hot-topic.co.nz\/a-coral-room\/" target="_blank">tantalising hints</a> of rapid surges in sea level during the warm parts of the Eemian. </p>
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		<title>By: C3P0</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/greenland-ice-melt-spreads-northwest/#comment-11646</link>
		<dc:creator>C3P0</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Mar 2010 23:02:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4489#comment-11646</guid>
		<description>&quot;Steve, have you never defrosted a freezer? The ice melts slowly for a few hours then suddenly, wham, it starts collapsing rapidly. &quot; ...&quot;melt-water seeping into crevasses, decreased albedo&quot; 
 
So this didnt happen?  
 
You note CO2 levels were 300ppm yet it was warmer than today. Interesting.... its as if something other than CO2 can influence temperature. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&quot;Steve, have you never defrosted a freezer? The ice melts slowly for a few hours then suddenly, wham, it starts collapsing rapidly. &quot; &#8230;&quot;melt-water seeping into crevasses, decreased albedo&quot; </p>
<p>So this didnt happen?  </p>
<p>You note CO2 levels were 300ppm yet it was warmer than today. Interesting&#8230;. its as if something other than CO2 can influence temperature. </p>
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		<title>By: Gareth</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/greenland-ice-melt-spreads-northwest/#comment-11645</link>
		<dc:creator>Gareth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Mar 2010 22:54:49 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>If you look at the video, the green colouring is where there is no mass loss -- ie where snow accumulation matches loss by melt and transport. That area used to show mass gain, but that changed a few years before the period shown in the animation. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you look at the video, the green colouring is where there is no mass loss &#8212; ie where snow accumulation matches loss by melt and transport. That area used to show mass gain, but that changed a few years before the period shown in the animation. </p>
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		<title>By: Gareth</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/greenland-ice-melt-spreads-northwest/#comment-11644</link>
		<dc:creator>Gareth</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Mar 2010 22:52:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4489#comment-11644</guid>
		<description>For tipping points, go and read the discussion at the Climate Progress link. 
 
During the last interglacial (Eemian), global average temps were a little higher than now (CO2 was only 300 ppm, remember), and sea level was about 6m higher at peak. It&#039;s thought that half of that rise came from Greenland and half from Antarctica. IIRC the Greenland ice sheet was about 25% smaller than at present, with trees growing on the southern part of the island. 
 
You have to bear in mind that this was an equilibrium response: the climate system stayed warm long enough for the oceans and ice sheets to &quot;catch up&quot;. That&#039;s not true at the moment. What we&#039;re seeing now is the early part of the transient response to warming. But the Eemian gives us an idea of where we&#039;re heading...  </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For tipping points, go and read the discussion at the Climate Progress link. </p>
<p>During the last interglacial (Eemian), global average temps were a little higher than now (CO2 was only 300 ppm, remember), and sea level was about 6m higher at peak. It&#039;s thought that half of that rise came from Greenland and half from Antarctica. IIRC the Greenland ice sheet was about 25% smaller than at present, with trees growing on the southern part of the island. </p>
<p>You have to bear in mind that this was an equilibrium response: the climate system stayed warm long enough for the oceans and ice sheets to &quot;catch up&quot;. That&#039;s not true at the moment. What we&#039;re seeing now is the early part of the transient response to warming. But the Eemian gives us an idea of where we&#039;re heading&#8230;  </p>
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		<title>By: C3P0</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/greenland-ice-melt-spreads-northwest/#comment-11643</link>
		<dc:creator>C3P0</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Mar 2010 20:31:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4489#comment-11643</guid>
		<description>I  agree that accelerating melting of Greenland would be cause for concern. 
 
Only having data since the mid 1990&#8217;s (or 2003 above) however leaves many questions unanswered. How does today&#8217;s ice level relate to past levels (ie 1000+ years ago)? Is today&#8217;s melt unusual in the historical record? If the sheet has been warmer in the past were tipping points reached? 
 
Sorry if I do not share your alarm but for me looking at only 10+ years of climate data and then projecting the trend forward is not cause for alarm. 
 </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I  agree that accelerating melting of Greenland would be cause for concern. </p>
<p>Only having data since the mid 1990&rsquo;s (or 2003 above) however leaves many questions unanswered. How does today&rsquo;s ice level relate to past levels (ie 1000+ years ago)? Is today&rsquo;s melt unusual in the historical record? If the sheet has been warmer in the past were tipping points reached? </p>
<p>Sorry if I do not share your alarm but for me looking at only 10+ years of climate data and then projecting the trend forward is not cause for alarm. </p>
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		<title>By: dappledwater</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/greenland-ice-melt-spreads-northwest/#comment-11642</link>
		<dc:creator>dappledwater</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Mar 2010 07:38:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4489#comment-11642</guid>
		<description>Sorry Steve, but what part of the lead-in don&#039;t you understand? 
 
&quot;Satellite observations and a state-of-the art regional atmospheric model have independently confirmed that the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate, reports a new study in Science.&quot; 
 
Or this: 
 
&quot;Professor Jonathan Bamber from the University of Bristol and an author on the paper said: &quot;It is clear from these results that mass loss from Greenland has been accelerating since the late 1990s and the underlying causes suggest this trend is likely to continue in the near future.&quot; 
 
Your negative feedback has already vanished, which you would know had you understood the article. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sorry Steve, but what part of the lead-in don&#039;t you understand? </p>
<p>&quot;Satellite observations and a state-of-the art regional atmospheric model have independently confirmed that the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate, reports a new study in Science.&quot; </p>
<p>Or this: </p>
<p>&quot;Professor Jonathan Bamber from the University of Bristol and an author on the paper said: &quot;It is clear from these results that mass loss from Greenland has been accelerating since the late 1990s and the underlying causes suggest this trend is likely to continue in the near future.&quot; </p>
<p>Your negative feedback has already vanished, which you would know had you understood the article. </p>
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		<title>By: Carol C</title>
		<link>http://hot-topic.co.nz/greenland-ice-melt-spreads-northwest/#comment-11641</link>
		<dc:creator>Carol C</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Mar 2010 07:34:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=4489#comment-11641</guid>
		<description>Steve, have you never defrosted a freezer?  The ice melts slowly for a few hours then suddenly, wham, it starts collapsing rapidly.  And there are more factors at play in Greenland&#039;s situation than in your freezer - increasing air and sea-surface temperatures, melt-water seeping into crevasses, decreased albedo, etc etc.  It&#039;s not logical to assume the same melt-rate today will apply throughout a decade, let alone a century. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve, have you never defrosted a freezer?  The ice melts slowly for a few hours then suddenly, wham, it starts collapsing rapidly.  And there are more factors at play in Greenland&#039;s situation than in your freezer &#8211; increasing air and sea-surface temperatures, melt-water seeping into crevasses, decreased albedo, etc etc.  It&#039;s not logical to assume the same melt-rate today will apply throughout a decade, let alone a century. </p>
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