Comments on: Climate Cover-Up http://hot-topic.co.nz/climate-cover-up/ Global warming and the future of New Zealand Mon, 15 Mar 2010 08:38:24 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=abc hourly 1 By: Arno Arrak http://hot-topic.co.nz/climate-cover-up/#comment-8660 Arno Arrak Sat, 28 Nov 2009 00:13:24 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3281#comment-8660 Dapplewater and RW: you don't know anything about science but you do know how to be superior and insulting in your ignorance. In medieval time you and Doug too would be the first start a witch hunt for deniers and stoke the fire under them. Dapplewater and RW: you don’t know anything about science but you do know how to be superior and insulting in your ignorance. In medieval time you and Doug too would be the first start a witch hunt for deniers and stoke the fire under them.

]]> By: Arno Arrak http://hot-topic.co.nz/climate-cover-up/#comment-8657 Arno Arrak Fri, 27 Nov 2009 23:55:18 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3281#comment-8657 For SamV - I have to agree with you this much - that models are equivalent to detailed hypothesis. They are simply complex mathematical statements of a physical situation whose solutions are expressed as computer output. The problem is that the modelers then try to pass off these solutions as facts when in actuality there are numerous hidden problems that neither the modeler nor the user knows or understands. This is the point driven home by Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis, and they have surveyed many types of models. The economic downturn we are still in is just one example of how the best of models can go wrong. The people writing the code for these models were top math wizards and they had the latest and greatest supercomputers to use but here we are, not knowing what hit us. For SamV – I have to agree with you this much – that models are equivalent to detailed hypothesis. They are simply complex mathematical statements of a physical situation whose solutions are expressed as computer output. The problem is that the modelers then try to pass off these solutions as facts when in actuality there are numerous hidden problems that neither the modeler nor the user knows or understands. This is the point driven home by Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis, and they have surveyed many types of models. The economic downturn we are still in is just one example of how the best of models can go wrong. The people writing the code for these models were top math wizards and they had the latest and greatest supercomputers to use but here we are, not knowing what hit us.

]]> By: Don’t let a thief steal into your heart — Hot Topic http://hot-topic.co.nz/climate-cover-up/#comment-8422 Don’t let a thief steal into your heart — Hot Topic Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:47:56 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3281#comment-8422 [...] considered by the US legislature, and when we know that for the last 20 years there has been a concerted campaign and PR effort to derail action on reducing carbon emissions, that a “whistleblower” has been so moved [...] [...] considered by the US legislature, and when we know that for the last 20 years there has been a concerted campaign and PR effort to derail action on reducing carbon emissions, that a “whistleblower” has been so moved [...]

]]> By: Book Review: Climate Cover-Up — The Crusade to Deny Global Warming | CleanTechies Blog - CleanTechies.com http://hot-topic.co.nz/climate-cover-up/#comment-8269 Book Review: Climate Cover-Up — The Crusade to Deny Global Warming | CleanTechies Blog - CleanTechies.com Tue, 17 Nov 2009 23:36:35 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3281#comment-8269 [...] appearing courtesy of Celsias; originally posted on Hot Topic Welcome to the CleanTechies Blog! If you are new here, you might want to subscribe to the RSS feed [...] [...] appearing courtesy of Celsias; originally posted on Hot Topic Welcome to the CleanTechies Blog! If you are new here, you might want to subscribe to the RSS feed [...]

]]> By: samv http://hot-topic.co.nz/climate-cover-up/#comment-8175 samv Wed, 11 Nov 2009 03:27:51 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3281#comment-8175 models are just detailed hypotheses expressed precisely. Argue against models and you argue against science. models are just detailed hypotheses expressed precisely. Argue against models and you argue against science.

]]> By: RW http://hot-topic.co.nz/climate-cover-up/#comment-8165 RW Tue, 10 Nov 2009 11:49:03 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3281#comment-8165 Doug is right. Best to ignore this latest graduate from the school of quasi-scientific fantasy. There will always be more of them turning up for a few years, but don't feed their egos too much. Doug is right. Best to ignore this latest graduate from the school of quasi-scientific fantasy. There will always be more of them turning up for a few years, but don’t feed their egos too much.

]]> By: Arno Arrak http://hot-topic.co.nz/climate-cover-up/#comment-8160 Arno Arrak Tue, 10 Nov 2009 00:31:23 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3281#comment-8160 Not true that "Useless Arithmetic" does not apply to climate. Here is an example about IPCC and the sea level rise question. Two of their modelers were attempting to determine the effect of fresh water held in storage on sea level rise. One of the modelers, Gornitz, thought its effect was negative and lowered sea level between 0.2 and 0.5 millimeters per year. The other one, Sahagian, thought it raised sea level by 0.6 millimeters per year. Now tell me, does the sea level go up or down because of water held in storage? IPCC sure does not know. The answer came from three guys from Taiwan - Chao, Yu and Li - who took it upon themselves to actually measure it. They had data on 29,484 reservoirs constructed since 1900 and determined that the effect was negative and that it had reduced sea level by 30 millimeters over the last half century. And then they went on to correct the published sea level curves for their new data and discovered that the corrected sea level curve became linear for the last eighty years. And the corrected rate of sea level rise for the last eighty years was 2.46 millimeters a year. If something has been linear that long it is not about to change anytime soon, and you don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that for a century this works out to a little under ten inches. This is the most probable sea level rise estimate that we have. Now compare this to twenty feet that Al Gore has been talking about and you start wondering whether his is a parallel universe or what. Not true that “Useless Arithmetic” does not apply to climate. Here is an example about IPCC and the sea level rise question. Two of their modelers were attempting to determine the effect of fresh water held in storage on sea level rise. One of the modelers, Gornitz, thought its effect was negative and lowered sea level between 0.2 and 0.5 millimeters per year. The other one, Sahagian, thought it raised sea level by 0.6 millimeters per year. Now tell me, does the sea level go up or down because of water held in storage? IPCC sure does not know. The answer came from three guys from Taiwan – Chao, Yu and Li – who took it upon themselves to actually measure it. They had data on 29,484 reservoirs constructed since 1900 and determined that the effect was negative and that it had reduced sea level by 30 millimeters over the last half century. And then they went on to correct the published sea level curves for their new data and discovered that the corrected sea level curve became linear for the last eighty years. And the corrected rate of sea level rise for the last eighty years was 2.46 millimeters a year. If something has been linear that long it is not about to change anytime soon, and you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that for a century this works out to a little under ten inches. This is the most probable sea level rise estimate that we have. Now compare this to twenty feet that Al Gore has been talking about and you start wondering whether his is a parallel universe or what.

]]> By: Arno Arrak http://hot-topic.co.nz/climate-cover-up/#comment-8158 Arno Arrak Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:14:35 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3281#comment-8158 Can I ask you Doug to please explain what you think the "science community" is and about what do you think it is being accused of lying or being wrong? Can I ask you Doug to please explain what you think the “science community” is and about what do you think it is being accused of lying or being wrong?

]]> By: Arno Arrak http://hot-topic.co.nz/climate-cover-up/#comment-8156 Arno Arrak Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:06:23 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3281#comment-8156 Probably not, judging by your talk. I already explained to you that models can be fitted to anything. If they take someone else's data and say they have fitted their model to it that proves only that they can fit that model to anything they like. Conclusions drawn from such curve fitting are no more believable than Mann's hockey stick forgery. Probably not, judging by your talk. I already explained to you that models can be fitted to anything. If they take someone else’s data and say they have fitted their model to it that proves only that they can fit that model to anything they like. Conclusions drawn from such curve fitting are no more believable than Mann’s hockey stick forgery.

]]> By: Doug Clover http://hot-topic.co.nz/climate-cover-up/#comment-8152 Doug Clover Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:43:25 +0000 http://hot-topic.co.nz/?p=3281#comment-8152 scaddenp I appreciate your attempt to communciate the actual science in a sane, rationale, and clear manner. But it is wasted. He is absolutely certain he is right and the science community is wrong or lying. Ignore him he will go away. Doug scaddenp

I appreciate your attempt to communciate the actual science in a sane, rationale, and clear manner. But it is wasted. He is absolutely certain he is right and the science community is wrong or lying.

Ignore him he will go away.

Doug

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